Europe to Fund Study on Beaming Solar Energy From Space
The European Space Agency (ESA) this week agreed to fund a study testing whether huge space-based solar farms could be cost effective. The SOLARIS project proposes converting sunlight collected in space to microwave energy, before transmitting it to the earth's surface. Researchers will thus run trials over three years to see if electricity can feasibly be beamed wirelessly into millions of people's homes from orbit.
Energy from sunlight can be far more efficiently collected in space as solar panels are not obscured by clouds and, unlike on earth, there is no night. ESA's director general Josef Aschbacher has said that such collection could be an "enormous" help to tackle future energy shortages, but it is only one of several options being discussed.
Narrative A
This is not only a technological triumph — considering the climate and energy crisis currently faced by the world, SBSP could also be a key part of the solution to the greatest global problem of this generation. The SOLARIS proposal could well make Europe a leader in the pursuit of scalable clean energy solutions.
Narrative B
This is not only about technology or renewable energy — growing interest in SBSP is down to international competition when it comes to climate-related goals. China has become increasingly interested in SBSP, and the international pursuit of the technology reflects an increasing militarization of space and, more broadly, military dominance.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that China will become the first country to administer more territory off Earth than on it, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Malaysia: Anwar Ibrahim Sworn In as PM
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, chairman of the coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH), was sworn in as Malaysia's 10th Prime Minister on Thursday after being appointed by Sultan Abdullah Ahmad Shah to form a unity government amid a hung parliament.
His nomination came hours after Malaysia's king held a special meeting with his fellow Malay rulers to discuss the formation of the new government after the three primary coalitions had failed to establish a majority in a recent election.
Narrative A
As the king's decision to appoint Anwar is final and can't be challenged, it's futile to argue that he failed to reach a majority. However, it's clear that his premiership is unlikely to be smooth sailing the Malay-ethnic majority isn't backing him, and forging ties with scandal-tainted leaders — as Anwar has done — will only further tarnish his reputation.
Narrative B
Malaysia requires leaders with diplomatic skills willing to act in the best interest of its citizens regardless of race or religion. While his success remains to be seen, Anwar — who has been a loud advocate for stability, good governance, proper economic management, and a unity government — embodies these principles and is the ideal candidate to lead the country out of its political crisis.
Pakistan: Army Chief Admits Military's Political Interference
In his last address as army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa defended the role of Pakistan's military, which has faced heavy criticism, particularly from former PM Imran Khan, who has accused it of being instrumental in his removal from office in April. Bajwa said the military had unlawfully meddled in politics for 70 years, but wasn't doing so any longer.
Speaking at the Defense and Martyr's Day ceremony in Rawalpindi on Wednesday, Bajwa questioned why other armies are rarely criticized, while the Pakistani military faces frequent condemnation. “I think the reason for this is the army’s interference in politics. That’s why the army decided in February not to get involved in politics,” he said.
Narrative A
It's best to take Bajwa’s claim that the army intends to cease their unconstitutional interference in politics with a large grain of salt. The military institution is so deeply entrenched in the fabric of Pakistan's politics that it would be near impossible to engineer such a sharp exit. Bajwa's successor will play a key role in reducing tensions between the government and opposition leader Imran Khan due to the decades of meddling by senior military figures in the country's political governance.
Narrative B
While it's true that Pakistan's army has a history of illegitimately interfering in politics, it's clear that Bajwa is using the end of his tenure as an opportunity to openly discuss the truth for the sake of the country's stability. This is a rare and candid admission by a senior leader who is concerned about the potential for ongoing turmoil, and believes that his influence — including through negotiating better relationships between political parties — was motivated by a desire to maintain the functioning of democracy and political health of the nation.
Nerd narrative
There is a 43% risk that Pakistan will default on its debt in 2022, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
DR Congo, Rwanda Agree On Ceasefire
On Wednesday, Angolan Foreign Minister Tete António announced that an agreement had been reached on an "immediate ceasefire" in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It's set to take effect on Friday, and is intended to help end militia violence and soaring tensions between the DRC and Rwanda.
The agreement was reached during a meeting between DRC Pres. Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta in the Angolan capital of Luanda. It follows a recent surge in fighting between Congolese troops and the M23 rebel group. Kinshasa argues that the M23 is backed by neighboring Rwanda — a claim Kigali rejects.
Establishment-critical narrative
While Kinshasa puts all the blame for the violence on the M23, it has deliberately undermined all serious peace efforts in eastern Congo. And while the government is now engaged in so-called peace talks, the Congolese army and its militias are busy planning a genocidal campaign against the eastern Tutsi population. Until Kinshasa ends its double game, there will be no peace.
Pro-establishment narrative
The road to peace in eastern Congo is long, but it's encouraging to see that Africa itself is taking the initiative and seems increasingly capable of resolving its conflicts on its own. That Paul Kagame obviously admitted to having influence over the M23 is a remarkable success of the EAC's peace efforts. Conditions for peace in eastern Congo are better than they have been for a long time.
Pentagon: Turkish Airstrikes In Syria 'Directly Threatened' US Troops
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated on Wednesday that a Turkish drone strike on a base in Syria on Tuesday put US troops and personnel at risk. No US service members were injured in the strike. No further information was provided, and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Kelly reportedly spoke with his Turkish counterpart Gen. Yasar Guler about "items of mutual strategic interest."
Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder expressed concern over escalating actions in the area in a statement on Wednesday, calling for immediate de-escalation to "maintain focus on the defeat-ISIS mission." At the same time, Ryder acknowledged Turkey's "legitimate security concerns."
Establishment-critical narrative
Turkey has been forced to conduct its own counterterrorism operations in northern Syria and northern Iraq because the US has continuously disregarded its NATO ally's security concerns. In order to fight ISIS in the region, Washington has provided military training and support to the PKK and its Syrian affiliate, YPG, despite designating it a terrorist organization. Turkey has no choice but to escalate action to protect itself.
Pro-establishment narrative
Turkey's obsession with Kurdish terrorism has dangerously escalated the situation in northern Syria, putting American forces at risk while also destabilizing the coalition's fragile control over ISIS. The SDF has no connection with the militant militia known as PKK and has been working with the US and coalition forces for years. This is not what the US should expect from an ally and sets a dangerous precedent for other alliances.
Nerd narrative
There's a 94% chance that Turkey will be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Alaska's Murkowski, Peltola Win Reelection
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska both won reelection against their Trump-backed opponents on Wednesday, marking the latest in a series of defeats for the former president.
Although neither candidate received an outright majority, they each came out on top in the state's recently introduced "ranked choice" system, which allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. Lower-ranked candidates are eliminated through a succession of counting rounds.
Democratic narrative
These victories — along with those against other Trump-backed candidates — show that the majority of American voters on both sides of the aisle are ready to move on from the former president and his toxic, conspiracy theory-ridden rhetoric. This is a win for democracy, freedom, and equality.
Republican narrative
These results reveal very little other than that ranked-choice voting is a scam that leads to mass confusion and increased voter bitterness. Alaska is a majority-Republican state, which Trump won by 10 points in 2020 — how did it end up with a Democratic representative?
Georgia Reinstates 6 Week Abortion Ban
On Wednesday, the Georgia Supreme Court reinstated the state's six-week abortion ban, reversing last week's ruling from a lower court that declared the restriction unconstitutional.
On Nov. 15, a Fulton County Superior judge ruled that the ban was unlawful as it was enacted in 2019 when the prevailing law of Roe v. Wade protected abortion access nationwide.
Democratic narrative
Although the decision to overturn Roe gave the power over abortion to the states, many of these trigger bans and abortion restrictions violate state constitutions and infringe on women's rights to bodily autonomy. It's absolutely necessary for judges to step in and block these bans.
Republican narrative
These trigger laws and restrictions were all legally voted on and implemented by their states' respective legislatures under the caveat that they would take effect if Roe were overturned. It's now the duty of state officials to enforce them. Opponents are free to challenge them, but they're in for a tough fight that they will inevitably lose.
Musk To Reinstate Suspended Twitter Accounts
On Thursday, Elon Musk announced a "general amnesty" for suspended Twitter accounts, which will see blocked users reinstated as early as next week.
This comes as Musk polled his followers on Wednesday, asking whether accounts that haven't "broken the law or engaged in egregious spam" should be reinstated. Around 72% of respondents voted yes.
Left narrative
Musk's brief few weeks as Twitter's CEO have been overwhelmingly marked by chaos. While he claims that this "general amnesty" will improve freedom of speech on the platform, it will really just give a wider platform to dangerous conspiracy theorists and allow for hate speech to run unchecked.
Right narrative
While Musk may be making questionable choices for his business, he's undeniably protecting free speech. A strong democracy can withstand untrue opinions and outlandish comments without falling apart, and tech companies don't need to police the speech of their users.
Day 275 Roundup: EU Struggles to Agree Russian Oil Price Cap; Deadly Strikes in Kherson
Negotiations entered their third day on Friday, as EU countries remained divided over what level at which to cap the prices of Russian oil exports — an initiative aimed at limiting the financial resources available to Moscow to fight the war in Ukraine.
The G7 proposed a cap of $65-$70 per barrel — close to current market rates — but countries such as Poland, Lithuania and Estonia argue that rate would make oil too profitable for Russia, as production costs are roughly $20 per barrel. Others including Germany, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands believe that going any lower could make gas supplies scarce and lead to a spike in prices from elsewhere.
Pro-establishment narrative
A cap on Russia's oil exports will further strain the resources available to Moscow for fighting its war in Ukraine, while alleviating price instability if Russian oil is taken off the market — it must be implemented.
Establishment-critical narrative
With countries such as China, India and others unlikely to go along with the EU's proposals, it's highly unlikely that they will be successfully implemented or work, even if support for the measures can be consolidated. A price cap is a ridiculous idea.
Pro-Russia narrative
A cap on the price of Russian oil goes against the principles of international trade and would have grave consequences for the global energy market.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the price of oil will be at least $88.3 per barrel by December 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Analysis: Vaccinated People Now Make Up a Majority of US COVID Deaths
The majority of Americans dying from COVID are either vaccinated or boosted against the virus, according to an analysis of official figures conducted on behalf of the Washington Post.
The analysis — carried out by Cynthia Cox, vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation — showed that 58% of Americans who died of COVID in August had received at least one dose of a vaccine.
Establishment-critical narrative
The White House continues to claim that the virus could be stopped in its tracks if everyone were vaccinated and boosted. They have also vilified the unvaccinated, claiming they were a threat to their families and society. However, the figures simply don't support their claims.
Pro-establishment narrative
These figures are to be expected as a large majority of Americans have received at least one dose of a vaccine and those with the greatest risk of dying from the disease, such as the elderly, are more likely to have been vaccinated. Vaccines are still nevertheless the most effective protection against COVID, and strongly medically advised.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.11M confirmed COVID deaths in the US by the end of 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Writer Sues Trump for Defamation, Battery
Donald Trump is facing a second lawsuit from US writer E. Jean Carroll, who is filing charges of battery and defamation against the former president. She alleges he sexually assaulted her 27 years ago, which he denies.
According to Carroll's complaint, Trump assaulted her in a dressing room of a luxury department store in Manhattan in 1995 or 1996. The allegation was first made in a book published in 2019, but due to the introduction of a new law known as the "Adult Survivors Act," she is now suing him for battery over the alleged incident.
Democratic narrative
Carroll's case is reflective of the success of Hochul's Adult Survivors Act at providing an opportunity to victims of decades old sexual abuse to take legal action against their abusers. The New York courts are expecting an avalanche of lawsuits brought under the act which will be aimed at holding attackers — even if they be ex-Presidents — accountable for exploitation.
Republican narrative
While those working with sex abuse victims have defended the moral rationale behind the law, the Adult Survivors Act will only succeed in putting further pressure on already overstretched courts. The state's court system is currently inundated with additional cases numbering more than 5K brought under the Child Victims Act — the inevitable influx of suits this new law will prompt risks buckling the justice system. Hochul's legislation puts ideology above practicality.
Nerd narrative
There is a 68% chance that, if Donald Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, that disqualification will be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.