China Loosens COVID Quarantine, Testing Rules
China announced on Wednesday sweeping changes to its "zero-COVID" policy, entailing a nationwide loosening of restrictions amid unprecedented protests. Per China's National Health Commission (NHC), this includes people with mild symptoms now being allowed to quarantine at home.
Over the past few days, Chinese authorities have begun loosening some of the world's most stringent COVID curbs to varying degrees and softening their tone on the threat of the virus. On Tuesday, residents in Beijing were allowed back into parks, supermarkets, offices, and airports without a negative COVID test.
Pro-establishment narrative
Localities across China are dynamically using new information to craft a science-based and targeted response to the COVID pandemic. Leaders and scientists are collaborating to ensure the optimal measures that limit restrictions on citizens while also prioritizing the health and safety of vulnerable populations within China. This has led to easing restrictions with focused care as society returns to normal.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's clear that many people in China are tired of the increasingly ineffective zero-Covid strategy, and the world is bracing for the worst. While the protests have put pressure on Beijing, the PRC's use of ineffective non-mRNA vaccines could make for a national and even global health crisis. China is now stuck in the volatile position to overwhelm its extremely fragile healthcare system or continue to face public outcry over draconian policies.
Nerd narrative
According to the Metaculus Prediction Community, China will end Covid Zero by May 8, 2023.
Day 287 Roundup: Washington 'Neither Encouraged Nor Enabled' Ukraine to Strike Within Russia, Says Blinken
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday that Washington has "neither encouraged nor enabled" Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia, after three attacks were recorded at Russian airfields in the past week.
Russia has repeatedly warned the US and its allies not to cross "red lines" by supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine — this has so far been heeded by western nations to avoid a major escalation. Nonetheless, Blinken said he's determined to ensure Ukrainians have, "the equipment that they need to defend themselves, to defend their territory, to defend their freedom."
Anti-Russia narrative
Attacks on airfields deep inside Russian territory will have struck a major psychological blow to the country's officials. Now Moscow's leaders will have to think long and hard about how to protect its long-range bombers from future attacks.
Pro-Russia narrative
Putin has already met with Russia's Security Council about the attacks, and new measures are being adopted to further secure Russian airfields. The situation is under control.
Nerd narrative
There's a 33% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Warnock Wins Georgia Senate Runoff
On Tuesday, Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock defeated Republican challenger and former NFL player Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff, leaving US Pres. Biden's party with a 51-49 majority in the upper chamber of Congress.
While Warnock finished narrowly ahead of Walker in the November midterms, neither reached the majority needed, which led to this week's one-on-one runoff. Walker's loss continues the unsuccessful trend of Trump-endorsed candidates.
Democratic narrative
After an exhaustive election campaign season in Georgia, Warnock should now be considered the leader of a new generation and part of a Democratic renaissance in the southeast. Nationally, Democrats fared better than expected, and Warnock's re-election is a potential opportunity to push a center-left agenda throughout all parts of the US.
Republican narrative
Warnock's win capped a disappointing midterm election season and a major blow to Republicans. The expected red wave in November didn't materialize — with Warnock managing to misleadingly project a centrist image, despite the reality of his liberal voting record, and skirt past Walker at the finish line.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Germany Arrests 25 Accused of Plotting Coup
On Wednesday, German police arrested 25 people for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government. The detained include former Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) member of the Bundestag — the country's parliament — Birgit Malsack-Winkemann and members of the Reichsbürger movement.
Terming the raids across 11 of Germany's 16 states against the so-called Reich Citizens movement an "anti-terrorism operation," Justice Minister Marco Buschmann said that the suspects may have planned an armed attack on state institutions.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's absurd to believe that the detained, most of them in their 60s or even 70s, would be able to storm the parliament and overthrow the government. This operation was carried out with the sole purpose of creating a furor in the media to divert the German people's attention from the incompetence of the Scholz administration and the nation's catastrophic economic problems, including its energy crisis.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Reichsbürger movement used to be mocked, but security forces have been increasingly concerned about the group's radicalization as conspiracy theories have permeated German society since the outbreak of the pandemic. As this far-right scene was responsible for over 1K extremist criminal acts last year and death threats to politicians, this operation was necessary to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Germany will elect a new Chancellor by October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Twitter Fires Lawyer Over Possible Internal Document Suppression
Twitter CEO Elon Musk on Tuesday fired James Baker, the company’s general counsel, over allegations that he vetted internal documents that were part of the platform’s “Twitter Files” release before they were handed over to journalists for dissemination.
The “Twitter Files” are documents and communications showing how Twitter handled content moderation prior to Musk’s takeover in October — including its decision to suppress stories about Hunter Biden’s laptop in the fall of 2020. The files are part of a stated effort by Musk to be transparent about decisions made by prior management.
Republican narrative
Scandal seems to follow Baker wherever he works. While at the FBI, he was prominent during the crooked attempt to establish ties between Russia and then-candidate Trump during the 2016 election. Now we find out he was involved in suppressing the Hunter Biden laptop story, which would've benefitted Trump if it was more widely released. Baker had to go.
Democratic narrative
What’s been released so far of the “Twitter Files” has been less than scandalous — only revealing that Twitter had numerous healthy debates over content moderation and fielded requests from both sides of the political aisle. Nothing tying Pres. Biden to nefarious deals done by Hunter has been uncovered. If Musk wanted Baker gone, fine, but it had nothing to do with Republicans’ onslaught of conspiracy theories.
Cynical narrative
Elon Musk has orchestrated this distraction to take attention away from how hate speech has proliferated on Twitter since his takeover. We shouldn't let him get away from facing tough questions on the rising volume of anger, hate and antisemitism on the platform, and how Twitter's let it happen.
EU: Proposed Legislation Asks Airlines to Pay More to Pollute
On Wednesday, the European Union reached an agreement over a law that will see the price paid by airlines for emitting polluting CO2 emissions increase. The legislation is intended to pressure the sector towards more sustainable reforms.
Currently, airlines that run flights inside Europe are compelled to submit permits for carbon dioxide emissions, but most of those are being granted for free by the EU. The European Parliament would reportedly phase out those free licenses by 2026.
Right narrative
This kind of "big state intervention" is not the way to tackle climate change. Many Europeans are facing a cost of living crisis, and "net zero" agendas across Europe have resulted in politicians unwilling to make the trade-offs required between supply, affordability, and decarbonization to meet abstract — but public-relations-friendly — sustainability goals. The private sector can help solve this issue if given the chance with better deregulation.
Left narrative
Private finance won't make the planet greener — only better regulation can. With the use of massive public investment — and a shift away from the chronically-entrenched strategies of government "greenwashing" — we can hold politicians more directly accountable and address the climate crisis.
Argentina: VP Sentenced to Six Years on Corruption Charges
On Tuesday, Argentina's VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was sentenced to six years in prison and disqualified from holding public office after a federal court in Buenos Aires found her guilty of corruption during her earlier terms as president.
The three-judge panel declared Fernández de Kirchner guilty of "fraudulent administration to the detriment of the state" for public work contracts in her stronghold province of Santa Cruz from 2007 to 2015, but rejected the charge that she ran a criminal organization.
Left narrative
This is a political witch hunt and disgrace to Argentina. Economic powers on the right are uniting to take down their political opponents in an unacceptable form of thuggery. The people of Argentina must stand behind their vice president and condemn this political persecution.
Right narrative
While Fernández de Kirchner and her supporters may claim foul play from the court, there's plenty of evidence that during the Kirchner rule, their family friend Báez was favored in public-works contracts. Yet, it's unlikely that she will be arrested in the coming years as this case could reach Argentina's Supreme Court, and a seat in Congress would be enough to grant her immunity.
Turkey Reportedly Sets Deadline for SDF Withdrawal from Northern Syria
Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday that, according to a Turkish source, Ankara has urged Moscow and Washington to press the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to withdraw within two weeks from Manbij, Tal Rifaat and Kobane, in northern Syria.
Turkey has reportedly warned that failure to meet the deadline — which won't be extended — will result in a military operation against the US-backed SDF.
Establishment-critical narrative
Turkey has been forced to conduct its own counterterrorism operations in northern Syria and northern Iraq because the US has continuously disregarded its NATO ally's security concerns. In order to fight IS in the region, Washington has provided military training and support to the PKK and its Syrian affiliate, YPG, despite designating it a terrorist organization. Turkey has no choice but to escalate action to protect itself.
Pro-establishment narrative
Turkey's obsession with Kurdish terrorism has dangerously escalated the situation in northern Syria, putting American forces at risk while also destabilizing the coalition's fragile control over IS. The SDF has no connection with the militant militia known as PKK and has been working with the US and coalition forces for years. This isn't what the US should expect from an ally and sets a dangerous precedent for other alliances.
Nerd narrative
There's a 93% chance that Turkey will be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SCOTUS Hears NC Redistricting Case
On Wednesday, SCOTUS heard arguments in Moore v. Harper, a North Carolina redistricting case about who at the state level has the power to regulate federal elections.
The case — brought forward by GOP lawmakers — asks the court to endorse what's known as the “independent state legislature” (ISL) theory, which claims that the Constitution delegates authority to regulate "the time, places and manner" of a state's federal election to its lawmakers.
Democratic narrative
This case is the biggest threat to free and fair elections in a long time. If SCOTUS rules in favor of ISL theory, state legislatures would control everything, including the appointment of presidential electors – a process central to Trump’s unsuccessful plan to overturn the 2020 results. There’s still hope, though, because even prominent conservatives have argued against granting state lawmakers this type of power. SCOTUS should rule to maintain the status quo.
Republican narrative
As stated in the Constitution, management of elections should fall to the people who regularly have to face the electorate, not some court that can’t be held accountable. Despite the opposition's concern, the ISL theory doesn’t give state lawmakers unfettered power over elections because Congress can keep them in check. This case will test whether SCOTUS is willing to live up to the Constitution's promise.
Peru: Pres. Castillo Detained, Impeached After Attempt To Dissolve Congress
Peru's National Police confirmed that the country's ousted Pres. Pedro Castillo was arrested on Wednesday after he announced the dissolution of Congress in a televised address to the nation hours before he was set to face his third impeachment vote.
Local media reported that Castillo was approached by police officers in downtown Lima as he was leaving government headquarters.
Left narrative
The impeachment process against Castillo was a clear — and deceitful — attempt to break with the Peruvian democratic order, but Castillo's actions are also unacceptable. He was not a trustworthy leader, and now this has become clearer than ever.
Right narrative
Castillo had long indicated that he wanted to abolish checks and balances to his power and polarize society, so Peru shouldn't have expected anything other than corruption scandals, violence, instability, and disaster from his administration. Fortunately, parliamentary efforts brought this nightmare to an end today.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) will be $20.4K in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.