N.Korea Completes ‘Important’ Test of Spy Satellite
North Korean state media on Monday reported that it had conducted an "important, final phase" test in the development of a military reconnaissance satellite. The country plans to have the satellite completed by April 2023.
This follows reports from South Korea and Japan that the North has launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward its east coast. According to analysts, developing such a satellite would provide North Korea with cover for testing banned intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), as they share similar technology.
Republican narrative
You can’t blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China — how does he know the US won't also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with, and policies towards North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.
Democratic narrative
Kim Jong-Un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, the leader should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.
Nerd narrative
There is a 36% chance that, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by 2050, there will be at least one resulting fatality in North Korea, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 299: Putin Heads to Belarus as Russian Drones Again Rock Kyiv
Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin on Monday headed to Belarus for a "working trip," sparking fears that he intends to pressure Belarusian president — Alexander Lukashenko — to join his military campaign in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia again launched a wave of pre-dawn drone attacks on Kyiv. City officials said damage was inflicted in the districts of Solomianskyi and Shevchenkyvskyi, and that an unspecified infrastructure facility was hit. There were no reports of civilian casualties.
Narrative A
Russia is undoubtedly planning to step up its attacks and widen its aggression against Ukraine in the New Year. Due to the weakened state of Moscow's forces, Russia's military aims will necessitate greater involvement from the armed forces of Belarus.
Narrative B
The Belarusian Pres. has repeatedly said he will not commit forces to fight in Ukraine and, even if reinforced by Belarus, Russia lacks the capability to plan and execute a large-scale military offensive in the coming months.
Nerd narrative
There's a 7% chance that Russian or Belarusian troops will cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Peru: President to Replace PM In Cabinet Shakeup
On Sunday, Peruvian Pres. Dina Boluarte said she will replace the transitional government's prime minister as part of a cabinet reshuffle amid political unrest and widespread protests following the recent ouster of her predecessor, Pedro Castillo.
She said that PM Pedro Angulo and other officials were being removed to build a "political team" to help with dialogue in the country ahead of a congressional debate on Tuesday over whether to bring elections forward to 2023.
Pro-establishment narrative
The fact that Peru has already had six presidents since 2016 speaks volumes about the country's political situation and underscores what a difficult legacy Boluarte is taking on. Therefore, it's a positive sign that the coup attempt by the ultra-leftist and corrupt Castillo failed thanks to the resilience of Peruvians. If Boluarte now succeeds in forming a strong government and implementing structural reforms, there's reason for optimism for Peruvian democracy.
Establishment-critical narrative
The ongoing protests highlight that the justified ouster of the unpopular Castillo is by no means the end of the ongoing political crisis in Peru. Poor Peruvians have legitimate doubts that the dysfunctional democratic system will change anything about their desperate situation. That's why snap elections would likely benefit populist candidates. Given these challenges, it's uncertain whether Boluarte will manage to keep Peru from becoming ungovernable.
Musk to Step Down as Twitter CEO
On Tuesday, Elon Musk said he would resign as Twitter's CEO as soon as he finds a replacement, having agreed to either stay on or step down from the role based on a Twitter poll launched on Sunday.
The poll ended with 57.5% of more than 17M users voting for Musk to leave his role. However, the vote is informal, and it's unclear when he will step down.
Narrative A
Since Musk took control, Twitter has been subjected to reckless decisions, leaving it in a chaotic state. Stepping down as CEO would be the start of cleaning up the mess he has made. However, his replacement needs to be someone who understands that the protection of users comes before the whims of an erratic billionaire.
Narrative B
While Musk has made some questionable decisions, this latest move isn't one of them. Involving users in key decisions is a refreshing overhaul to Twitter's — and the broader tech world's — policymaking, which is dominated by only a select few. Others should take heed.
Cynical narrative
Given that Twitter is mainly made up of software and servers, Musk is set to keep de-facto control of the company even if he's not CEO. As is the case with his other companies, it's unlikely a change in his title will bring an end to his leadership.
Nerd narrative
There is a 3% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the US before Feb. 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Argentina Defeats France in World Cup Final
On Sunday, in what has been widely described as the greatest World Cup final of all time, Argentina defeated France to win soccer's greatest prize for the third time in the country's history.
In Qatar's Lusail Stadium, Argentina's Lionel Messi gave his team the lead and was shortly followed by Ángel Di María who slotted in a 36th-minute goal — giving the Argentines a 2-0 advantage going into halftime.
Narrative A
In spite of the criticism and scandal, Qatar got what it wanted an exhilarating World Cup watched by millions. The icing on the cake was watching superstar Messi finally lift the World Cup trophy — a dream he has no doubt sought since first kicking a soccer ball.
Narrative B
This was nearly a perfect tournament — but that's exactly the problem. Once the games started, all concerns about corruption, migrant deaths, and the persecution of the LGBTQ community were quickly forgotten. Unfortunately, it demonstrates that "sportswashing" works.
UK: Rwanda Deportation Plan Ruled Lawful
After being blocked in June by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), the UK's controversial plan to deport migrants to Rwanda was ruled legal on Monday by London's High Court. The policy, announced in April, will send tens of thousands of migrants to the African nation.
Lord Justice Lewis stated that the program was "consistent with the refugee convention," but added that the cases of the first few asylum-seekers set for deportation needed to be reconsidered by home secretary Suella Braverman before flights take off.
Left narrative
This latest ruling not only wrongly interprets international refugee law and ignores migrants' rights to seek protection in the UK, but it approves a deal to send vulnerable people to a nation with its own asylum and human rights violations. British taxes will now be wasted on a cruel, expensive and devastatingly ineffective deportation scheme. This is a damaging distraction from truly combating criminal gangs.
Right narrative
This program offers a real chance to end a crisis that many Britons on the left and right have grown to agree on. Since migrants likely won't want to pay thousands of pounds for a trip just to be sent back later, the Rwandan deal could not only see successful deportations now but a stoppage in future attempts to enter the UK illegally.
UN Agreement Inches Towards Conserving 30% of Earth's Area
On Monday, delegates at the UN's COP15 biodiversity summit — which has been characterized as a "last chance" for nature's recovery — struck a landmark agreement and pledged to protect nearly a third of the planet's area by 2030.
The most prominent part of the agreement, known as "30x30," calls for a coordinated effort to designate 30% of Earth's land and ocean area as protected areas by 2030. About 17% of the planet's land and 8% of its oceans are currently protected from fishing, farming, and industrial activities.
Narrative A
The framework has come just in time. This agreement to protect 30% of Earth's lands, rivers, lakes, and wetlands is a step in the right direction. It can prevent mass extinctions, bolster resilience to climate change, safeguard marine ecosystems, and allow humanity to transition towards a nature-positive world.
Narrative B
It's unlikely that this will be fully implemented, as shown by past UN treaties. The agreement could be undermined by its failure to mobilize the promised resources as the financial commitments — including the pledge to increase overall biodiversity financing to $200B a year from all sources — are not legally binding. Also, the US is not a party to the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 32% chance that the European Union will achieve its 2030 Paris Climate Agreement goals, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Jan. 6 Committee Announces Criminal Referrals for Trump
In its final public meeting on Monday, the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riots voted to refer Trump to the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) on multiple charges over his alleged role in the events surrounding the 2020 election. Trump is the first president ever referred by Congress for potential criminal prosecution.
The Committee leaned heavily on courts to support its claims. This includes a series of legal rulings nationwide against Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 election.
Democratic narrative
Trump and his inner circle must be held accountable for contributing to a reckless assault on democracy. No one is above the law, and the peaceful transfer of power is the bedrock of any democracy. GOP leaders instigated the attack on the US Capitol and should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.
Republican narrative
Democrats will stop at nothing to destroy their enemies and the Jan. 6 committee is just another way for them to achieve that goal. Democrats themselves have resisted certifying elections. This panel is a sham, and its members should be the ones investigated.
Pakistan: Militants Seize Counterterrorism Center
Roughly 20 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants seized a government counterterrorism facility in the northwestern Bannu district late on Sunday and are holding several security officials hostage, reportedly demanding safe passage to Afghanistan.
The militants allegedly snatched guns from police officers while being interrogated at the detention center and later took the entire staff hostage, with the TTP claiming responsibility for the incident.
Pro-establishment narrative
The TTP's growing aggression, coupled with the Afghan Taliban's continued stance of looking the other way, is proof that Pakistan needs to ramp up its military operations. Not only must Islamabad target militants nationwide, but it could justifiably take the fight to Afghanistan in a coordinated military effort with regional allies.
Establishment-critical narrative
Pakistan's continuous cycle of trying to co-opt, sponsor or defeat the TTP has only led to continual armed conflict. Even if Pakistan successfully blames Afghanistan for supporting the group, it won't change the fact that the TTP blames Pakistan for targeting its members domestically. Pakistan's focus must be on fighting an ideological war and encouraging Afghanistan to welcome the TTP onto its side of the border to prevent future conflict.
Nerd narrative
There's an 88% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Epic Games to Pay Record US Govt Settlement
The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Monday announced that Epic Games, creator of the popular game Fortnite, has agreed to pay a record $520M settlement over privacy violations related to minors.
Epic will pay a record $275M to settle FTC accusations of violations against the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act. The FTC alleged Epic collected personal information from children younger than 13 who played Fortnite and made it difficult for children and their parents to get the data deleted.
Pro-establishment narrative
Even before agreeing to this settlement, Epic had been taking steps to protect children playing its games — including creating new options related to purchases and replenishments of accounts. The company has also created "Cabined Accounts," which automatically disables features, including chat and purchasing, for underage players. When it comes to consumer protection, Epic’s intention is to be a leader.
Establishment-critical narrative
Epic might be doing the right thing now, but for years it violated FTC statutes. This settlement shows the agency means business regarding protecting children from online privacy and questionable behavior. This should serve as a warning shot for other businesses that commit similar violations. The FTC should continue to crack down, and the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act should be revised and enhanced.
Sweden Blocks Turkish Journalist's Extradition
Sweden’s Supreme Court on Monday blocked the extradition of Bulent Kenes, an exiled Turkish journalist and former editor-in-chief of the Zaman newspaper, which has been one of Ankara's key demands before ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership.
The court said there were "several hindrances" to the extradition of Kenes, including the fact that some of the accusations against him aren't crimes in Sweden, as well as his refugee status and the political nature of his case.
Narrative A
Sweden cannot call itself a democracy if it capitulates to the demands of a dictator. Erdoğan's rule in Turkey has quickly changed the country from a thriving democracy in the Middle East to another authoritarian regional state. The only thing Renes is guilty of is not toeing Erdoğan's line. The court made the right decision.
Narrative B
Renes is directly associated with the terrorist Gulen movement, and Sweden must pursue justice and have him extradited to Turkey. The Turkish armed forces are the largest military in NATO outside of the US, and its demands shouldn't be taken lightly. Sweden cannot be allowed to turn a blind eye to terrorism while also expecting to be able to join NATO without any concessions.