19 December 2022

Daily Newsletter

N.Korea Completes ‘Important’ Test of Spy Satellite

Facts

  • North Korean state media on Monday reported that it had conducted an "important, final phase" test in the development of a military reconnaissance satellite. The country plans to have the satellite completed by April 2023.
  • This follows reports from South Korea and Japan that the North has launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward its east coast. According to analysts, developing such a satellite would provide North Korea with cover for testing banned intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), as they share similar technology.
  • Pyongyang's National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) reportedly conducted the launch via mock satellite, including a 20 meter resolution full-color camera, two multi-spectra cameras, image transmitters and receivers, a control device, and a storage battery that were fired at the "lofted angle" of 500 km (311 miles).
  • Pyongyang said it took photos of South Korean cities as part of its efforts to develop its first military spy satellite. Along with pictures of the launch, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) posted a pair of low-resolution, black-and-white images of Seoul and Incheon.
  • The resolution of the images released isn't notably impressive for the purposes of military reconnaissance, but will likely be an ongoing development with more improvements over time, said Soo Kim, security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation.
  • A photo analysis of Pyongyang's recent missile launch shows that they were likely a new type of liquid-fueled weapon, capable of being used for military purposes, as well as of sending a satellite into orbit.

Spin

Republican narrative

You can’t blame Kim Jong-un for flexing North Korea’s military muscle when Biden is recklessly saber-rattling with Taiwan and China — how does he know the US won't also team up with South Korea for an invasion of the North? Trump's relationship with, and policies towards North Korea maintained stability in the Korean Peninsula.

Democratic narrative

Kim Jong-Un's geopolitical actions have been erratic, and his missile launches are destabilizing the Peninsula. Instead of provoking a confrontation, the leader should take the Biden administration up on its offer to meet without preconditions, and settle any grievances peacefully. Biden is showing strength and prudence in the region.

Nerd narrative

There is a 36% chance that, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by 2050, there will be at least one resulting fatality in North Korea, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 299: Putin Heads to Belarus as Russian Drones Again Rock Kyiv

Facts

  • Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin on Monday headed to Belarus for a "working trip," sparking fears that he intends to pressure Belarusian president — Alexander Lukashenko — to join his military campaign in Ukraine.
  • Meanwhile, Russia again launched a wave of pre-dawn drone attacks on Kyiv. City officials said damage was inflicted in the districts of Solomianskyi and Shevchenkyvskyi, and that an unspecified infrastructure facility was hit. There were no reports of civilian casualties.
  • Kyiv's regional governor Oleksii Kuleba also reported that infrastructure facilities, as well as residential buildings, were hit with drones in the wider region, injuring at least two civilians.
  • A drone attack, as well as attacks from rockets and artillery, were also reported in the region of Dnipropetrovsk, while shelling was reported in Sumy, with no reports of civilian casualties in either region.
  • However, Ukrainian officials reported that three civilians were killed and four more were injured in Russian attacks on the Donetsk region over the past day, while six civilians were reported injured in Kherson. One civilian was also reported injured in Kharkiv.
  • In Ukrainian attacks, pro-Russia officials from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) reported that one civilian was killed and four civilians were injured in territory it controls during the same time period. One civilian was reported killed and 10 more injured in Ukrainian attacks on the Russian city of Belgorod, in the border region of the same name.
  • Elsewhere, again drawing the ire of Ukrainian officials, Henry Kissinger repeated suggestions that now was the time for a negotiated peace in Ukraine. Writing in the Spectator, Kissinger encouraged officials to, "build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished," and use them to seek a negotiated peace.

Spin

Narrative A

Russia is undoubtedly planning to step up its attacks and widen its aggression against Ukraine in the New Year. Due to the weakened state of Moscow's forces, Russia's military aims will necessitate greater involvement from the armed forces of Belarus.

Narrative B

The Belarusian Pres. has repeatedly said he will not commit forces to fight in Ukraine and, even if reinforced by Belarus, Russia lacks the capability to plan and execute a large-scale military offensive in the coming months.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that Russian or Belarusian troops will cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Peru: President to Replace PM In Cabinet Shakeup

Facts

  • On Sunday, Peruvian Pres. Dina Boluarte said she will replace the transitional government's prime minister as part of a cabinet reshuffle amid political unrest and widespread protests following the recent ouster of her predecessor, Pedro Castillo.
  • She said that PM Pedro Angulo and other officials were being removed to build a "political team" to help with dialogue in the country ahead of a congressional debate on Tuesday over whether to bring elections forward to 2023.
  • On Saturday, Boluarte reportedly called on Congress to authorize early elections consistent with the demands of the Peruvian people. Earlier, Washington said it looked forward to working with Boluarte and called on Lima to uphold "shared goals and values."
  • Angulo had been named PM when Peru's first female president appointed her cabinet last week following the Dec. 7 impeachment of leftist leader Castillo after he attempted to dissolve the legislature and announced he would rule by decree. Since then, Castillo has been detained and protests have rocked the South American country.
  • Last week, Peru's defense minister imposed a 30-day nationwide state of emergency amid the unrest.
  • Peruvian authorities on Friday updated the death toll from protests to 22 as two demonstrators reportedly died in clashes with police in central Peru, with education minister Patricia Correa and culture minister Jair Pérez resigning due to the escalating death count.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The fact that Peru has already had six presidents since 2016 speaks volumes about the country's political situation and underscores what a difficult legacy Boluarte is taking on. Therefore, it's a positive sign that the coup attempt by the ultra-leftist and corrupt Castillo failed thanks to the resilience of Peruvians. If Boluarte now succeeds in forming a strong government and implementing structural reforms, there's reason for optimism for Peruvian democracy.

Establishment-critical narrative

The ongoing protests highlight that the justified ouster of the unpopular Castillo is by no means the end of the ongoing political crisis in Peru. Poor Peruvians have legitimate doubts that the dysfunctional democratic system will change anything about their desperate situation. That's why snap elections would likely benefit populist candidates. Given these challenges, it's uncertain whether Boluarte will manage to keep Peru from becoming ungovernable.

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Musk to Step Down as Twitter CEO

Facts

  • On Tuesday, Elon Musk said he would resign as Twitter's CEO as soon as he finds a replacement, having agreed to either stay on or step down from the role based on a Twitter poll launched on Sunday.
  • The poll ended with 57.5% of more than 17M users voting for Musk to leave his role. However, the vote is informal, and it's unclear when he will step down.
  • In response to the poll, Musk tweeted, "As the saying goes, be careful what you wish, as you might get it.” Musk previously claimed nobody wanted the job as Twitter's CEO who could "actually keep Twitter alive.”
  • Musk, who is also CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, previously signaled he would eventually give up the Twitter position. Musk told a Delaware judge in November he planned to reduce his time at Twitter and "find somebody else to run Twitter over time.”
  • Tesla shares, which had sunk 11% over the past month, increased by 5% in premarket trading after the poll result was revealed on Monday. Twitter could potentially be on pace to lose $4B a year, confirming Musk’s claims that the platform's finances are dire.
  • Musk acquired Twitter for $44B in October, promising to improve free speech and eliminate fake accounts.
  • Musk revealed that he would still continue to run Twitter's software and server teams. He is also reportedly considering only allowing those who are part of Twitter Blue, a paid subscription service, to participate in polls concerning policy in the future.

Spin

Narrative A

Since Musk took control, Twitter has been subjected to reckless decisions, leaving it in a chaotic state. Stepping down as CEO would be the start of cleaning up the mess he has made. However, his replacement needs to be someone who understands that the protection of users comes before the whims of an erratic billionaire.

Narrative B

While Musk has made some questionable decisions, this latest move isn't one of them. Involving users in key decisions is a refreshing overhaul to Twitter's — and the broader tech world's — policymaking, which is dominated by only a select few. Others should take heed.

Cynical narrative

Given that Twitter is mainly made up of software and servers, Musk is set to keep de-facto control of the company even if he's not CEO. As is the case with his other companies, it's unlikely a change in his title will bring an end to his leadership.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the US before Feb. 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Argentina Defeats France in World Cup Final

Facts

  • On Sunday, in what has been widely described as the greatest World Cup final of all time, Argentina defeated France to win soccer's greatest prize for the third time in the country's history.
  • In Qatar's Lusail Stadium, Argentina's Lionel Messi gave his team the lead and was shortly followed by Ángel Di María who slotted in a 36th-minute goal — giving the Argentines a 2-0 advantage going into halftime.
  • France, the defending champions, looked out of the game until their respective superstar — Kylian Mbappé — also scored from the penalty spot in the 80th minute and hit the back of the net again less than two minutes later, forcing extra time with the score tied at 2-2.
  • Messi, widely regarded as the world's greatest player, again put his team ahead but was again rebuffed by Mbappé — making him only the second player in history to score a hat-trick in a World Cup final after England's Geoff Hurst in 1966.
  • As the game headed to a penalty shootout, both Messi and Mbappé scored their team's first attempts. But after Kingsley Coman and Aurelien Tchouameni both missed for France, Argentina's Gonzalo Montiel sealed the victory for his team with a 4-2 lead in penalties.
  • Before Argentina raised the iconic 18-carat World Cup trophy, their goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez was awarded the Golden Gloves award while their midfielder Enzo Fernández won the Young Player Award. Messi walked away with the Golden Ball for the best player while Mbappé secured the Golden Boot for most goals scored.

Spin

Narrative A

In spite of the criticism and scandal, Qatar got what it wanted an exhilarating World Cup watched by millions. The icing on the cake was watching superstar Messi finally lift the World Cup trophy — a dream he has no doubt sought since first kicking a soccer ball.

Narrative B

This was nearly a perfect tournament — but that's exactly the problem. Once the games started, all concerns about corruption, migrant deaths, and the persecution of the LGBTQ community were quickly forgotten. Unfortunately, it demonstrates that "sportswashing" works.

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UK: Rwanda Deportation Plan Ruled Lawful

Facts

  • After being blocked in June by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), the UK's controversial plan to deport migrants to Rwanda was ruled legal on Monday by London's High Court. The policy, announced in April, will send tens of thousands of migrants to the African nation.
  • Lord Justice Lewis stated that the program was "consistent with the refugee convention," but added that the cases of the first few asylum-seekers set for deportation needed to be reconsidered by home secretary Suella Braverman before flights take off.
  • The deal with Rwanda made by former PM Boris Johnson's government is aimed at deterring migrants who journey to the UK via small boats, and forces migrants to pursue their asylum claims in Rwanda. Despite the ECHR's injunction, PM Rishi Sunak's government retained the conservative party's goal of implementing the program.
  • In return for Rwanda processing the asylum claims, the UK says it will invest £120M ($127M) into the economic development and growth of the central African country, as well as funding for asylum operations, accommodation, and integration similar to that incurred by Britain for such services.
  • While Labor party and Liberal Democrats have denounced the program, Kigali welcomed the UK High Court's ruling, calling the deal Rwanda's contribution to providing both "innovative" and "long-term solutions" to tackling the global migration crisis.
  • The government's attempts to deter illegal immigration come as the UK has faced a record of over 40k migrants this year from France, many of whom originally journeyed from war-torn Afghanistan and Iran, among others.

Spin

Left narrative

This latest ruling not only wrongly interprets international refugee law and ignores migrants' rights to seek protection in the UK, but it approves a deal to send vulnerable people to a nation with its own asylum and human rights violations. British taxes will now be wasted on a cruel, expensive and devastatingly ineffective deportation scheme. This is a damaging distraction from truly combating criminal gangs.

Right narrative

This program offers a real chance to end a crisis that many Britons on the left and right have grown to agree on. Since migrants likely won't want to pay thousands of pounds for a trip just to be sent back later, the Rwandan deal could not only see successful deportations now but a stoppage in future attempts to enter the UK illegally.

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UN Agreement Inches Towards Conserving 30% of Earth's Area

Facts

  • On Monday, delegates at the UN's COP15 biodiversity summit — which has been characterized as a "last chance" for nature's recovery — struck a landmark agreement and pledged to protect nearly a third of the planet's area by 2030.
  • The most prominent part of the agreement, known as "30x30," calls for a coordinated effort to designate 30% of Earth's land and ocean area as protected areas by 2030. About 17% of the planet's land and 8% of its oceans are currently protected from fishing, farming, and industrial activities.
  • The platform agreed upon includes safeguarding the rights of indigenous communities, halving global food waste, and protecting vital ecosystems such as wetlands, grasslands, and coral reefs.
  • In addition, the developed countries agreed to work towards increasing financial aid to the developing countries and contribute at least $20B per year by 2025, rising to $30B per year by 2030.
  • However, the framework still needs to be agreed upon by the 196 signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity before it is finalized.
  • The pact comes as biodiversity declines worldwide at alarming rates. Up to 1M of the estimated 8M plant and animal species face extinction in the coming decades.

Spin

Narrative A

The framework has come just in time. This agreement to protect 30% of Earth's lands, rivers, lakes, and wetlands is a step in the right direction. It can prevent mass extinctions, bolster resilience to climate change, safeguard marine ecosystems, and allow humanity to transition towards a nature-positive world.

Narrative B

It's unlikely that this will be fully implemented, as shown by past UN treaties. The agreement could be undermined by its failure to mobilize the promised resources as the financial commitments — including the pledge to increase overall biodiversity financing to $200B a year from all sources — are not legally binding. Also, the US is not a party to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 32% chance that the European Union will achieve its 2030 Paris Climate Agreement goals, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Jan. 6 Committee Announces Criminal Referrals for Trump

Facts

  • In its final public meeting on Monday, the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riots voted to refer Trump to the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) on multiple charges over his alleged role in the events surrounding the 2020 election. Trump is the first president ever referred by Congress for potential criminal prosecution.
  • The Committee leaned heavily on courts to support its claims. This includes a series of legal rulings nationwide against Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 election.
  • Charges in the referrals include: obstructing an official proceeding of Congress; conspiracy to defraud the federal government; making a false statement; and inciting, assisting, or aiding and comforting an insurrection. The committee also referred several prominent GOP members to the House Ethics Committee — including Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).
  • Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), a member of the committee, suggested that Trump’s actions are a “pretty good match” for US insurrection statutes.
  • The referrals won’t carry any legal weight, nor will they necessarily compel the DOJ to act. The committee is set to dissolve once Republicans take the majority in the next Congress starting in January.

Spin

Democratic narrative

Trump and his inner circle must be held accountable for contributing to a reckless assault on democracy. No one is above the law, and the peaceful transfer of power is the bedrock of any democracy. GOP leaders instigated the attack on the US Capitol and should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

Republican narrative

Democrats will stop at nothing to destroy their enemies and the Jan. 6 committee is just another way for them to achieve that goal. Democrats themselves have resisted certifying elections. This panel is a sham, and its members should be the ones investigated.

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Pakistan: Militants Seize Counterterrorism Center

Facts

  • Roughly 20 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants seized a government counterterrorism facility in the northwestern Bannu district late on Sunday and are holding several security officials hostage, reportedly demanding safe passage to Afghanistan.
  • The militants allegedly snatched guns from police officers while being interrogated at the detention center and later took the entire staff hostage, with the TTP claiming responsibility for the incident.
  • The situation has remained tense through Monday as no breakthrough has been achieved in talks between Pakistan's government and the militants. Internet and cellphone services were suspended in the area while authorities urge residents to stay indoors.
  • Few other details have emerged so far, though Pakistani officials have confirmed that one counter-terrorism officer was killed during the militants' takeover of the detention center, and estimate that there could be up to 10 hostages.
  • The incident comes a day after the TTP — which associates itself with the Afghanistan Taliban — claimed the killings of four policemen in a nearby district, and is the latest in a years-long battle between the government and the militant group since it first emerged in 2007.
  • In late November, the TTP unilaterally called off a five-month-long truce with the Pakistan government which had been brokered by Afghanistan's Taliban, ordering its fighters to restart attacks.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The TTP's growing aggression, coupled with the Afghan Taliban's continued stance of looking the other way, is proof that Pakistan needs to ramp up its military operations. Not only must Islamabad target militants nationwide, but it could justifiably take the fight to Afghanistan in a coordinated military effort with regional allies.

Establishment-critical narrative

Pakistan's continuous cycle of trying to co-opt, sponsor or defeat the TTP has only led to continual armed conflict. Even if Pakistan successfully blames Afghanistan for supporting the group, it won't change the fact that the TTP blames Pakistan for targeting its members domestically. Pakistan's focus must be on fighting an ideological war and encouraging Afghanistan to welcome the TTP onto its side of the border to prevent future conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's an 88% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Epic Games to Pay Record US Govt Settlement

Facts

  • The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) on Monday announced that Epic Games, creator of the popular game Fortnite, has agreed to pay a record $520M settlement over privacy violations related to minors.
  • Epic will pay a record $275M to settle FTC accusations of violations against the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act. The FTC alleged Epic collected personal information from children younger than 13 who played Fortnite and made it difficult for children and their parents to get the data deleted.
  • Epic will pay $245M to settle a second complaint over consumers who claimed user-interface design choices, which the FTC described as deceptive, hurt them. That settlement will be paid out as refunds to users.
  • The FTC alleged that Epic caused “substantial injury” to children when it enabled live voice and text chats by default and matched minors with adults on Fortnite teams. This allegedly led to bullying and harassment in some cases.
  • Fortnite has at least 400M users around the world and made $3.7B in 2019 for Epic — which is valued at $32B by The Wall Street Journal. Epic neither explicitly confirmed nor denied the allegations as part of its settlement.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Even before agreeing to this settlement, Epic had been taking steps to protect children playing its games — including creating new options related to purchases and replenishments of accounts. The company has also created "Cabined Accounts," which automatically disables features, including chat and purchasing, for underage players. When it comes to consumer protection, Epic’s intention is to be a leader.

Establishment-critical narrative

Epic might be doing the right thing now, but for years it violated FTC statutes. This settlement shows the agency means business regarding protecting children from online privacy and questionable behavior. This should serve as a warning shot for other businesses that commit similar violations. The FTC should continue to crack down, and the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act should be revised and enhanced.

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Sweden Blocks Turkish Journalist's Extradition

Facts

  • Sweden’s Supreme Court on Monday blocked the extradition of Bulent Kenes, an exiled Turkish journalist and former editor-in-chief of the Zaman newspaper, which has been one of Ankara's key demands before ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership.
  • The court said there were "several hindrances" to the extradition of Kenes, including the fact that some of the accusations against him aren't crimes in Sweden, as well as his refugee status and the political nature of his case.
  • In the court's ruling, Judge Petter Asp stated that “there is also a risk of persecution based on this person’s political beliefs. An extradition can thusly not take place."
  • Zaman was banned by Turkish authorities after the government accused it and Kenes of participating in the 2016 attempted coup against Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Kenes went into exile and began working for the Stockholm Centre for Freedom, founded by other exiled Turkish dissidents.
  • Erdoğan has explicitly named Kenes as a suspected "terrorist." Ankara has increased the number of people it wants to be extradited over time, beginning at 33, then 45, then 73, in unofficial lists published by media close to the Turkish government.
  • Stockholm has repeatedly stressed that its judiciary has the final say in extraditions and that the government doesn't have the power to override the decision.

Spin

Narrative A

Sweden cannot call itself a democracy if it capitulates to the demands of a dictator. Erdoğan's rule in Turkey has quickly changed the country from a thriving democracy in the Middle East to another authoritarian regional state. The only thing Renes is guilty of is not toeing Erdoğan's line. The court made the right decision.

Narrative B

Renes is directly associated with the terrorist Gulen movement, and Sweden must pursue justice and have him extradited to Turkey. The Turkish armed forces are the largest military in NATO outside of the US, and its demands shouldn't be taken lightly. Sweden cannot be allowed to turn a blind eye to terrorism while also expecting to be able to join NATO without any concessions.

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