Guantánamo Detainee Freed to Belize
Majid Khan, a former al-Qaeda courier turned US government witness, has been transferred from the US-run detention facility in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to Belize, nearly a year after he finished his sentence.
Khan, who was captured in Pakistan in 2003, was initially held at secret overseas CIA black sites, where he endured brutal interrogation methods, including waterboarding, beatings, and sleep deprivation, before being sent to Guantánamo.
Khan in 2012 struck a plea deal that required him to plead guilty to war crimes, including murder and spying, and vow to never sue the US government. A military jury suggested a lenient sentence because of what he endured.
Democratic narrative
This is a milestone in Biden’s attempt to resettle all the Guantánamo prisoners and close the book on an era of human rights mistakes. It’s been a challenge finding ways to do this in the face of restrictive US laws and tentative foreign countries, but this is a step in the right direction toward emptying the prison.
Republican narrative
Prisoners at Guantánamo are dangerous terrorists, and they shouldn't be given the opportunity to return to the battlefield. Should Biden actually try to shut down Guantánamo, he risks not only a partisan backlash but also the safety and security of US allies.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the US will close the Guantánamo Bay detention camp by December 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pentagon Tracking Alleged Chinese 'Spy Balloon'
The US Pentagon on Thursday said it was monitoring what it suspects to be a high-altitude Chinese surveillance balloon over the US mainland. China claims it is a "civilian airship" for "research, mainly meteorological, purposes" that had blown off course.
US Defense officials say the balloon passed over sensitive areas, allegedly to collect intelligence, and was spotted over the US state of Montana, where some 150 silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles are located at Malmstrom Air Force Base.
To avoid endangering people with falling debris, the US military reportedly advised against shooting down the object, which has been observed by the US Air Force for several days and is estimated to be the size of three buses.
Pro-China narrative
Stories about the alleged Chinese spy balloon are mushrooming, providing fertile ground for spreading the "Chinese threat" narrative. In the age of surveillance satellites, the assumption that Beijing is resorting to easily detectable balloons is absurd. The catchy "revelation" is primarily about undermining constructive China-US dialogue, and it is the US that is second to none in terms of using spy techniques on the PRC.
Anti-China narrative
Since everything points to it being a Chinese spy balloon, the Biden administration must abandon its soft stance toward Beijing and respond decisively. With its blatant disregard for US territorial integrity, Beijing continues to fuel tensions, which is why Blinken's China trip needed to be canceled. This is a pivotal moment for Biden's leadership as well — the GOP is watching closely for a strong response.
Cynical narrative
In recent years, similar incidents have occurred time and again. Should the object prove to be a spy balloon, however, China would by no means be the only country that has recently explored the upper regions of the atmosphere for surveillance purposes via stratospheric balloons or high-altitude drones. The development of this technology is also being driven forward in the US. Situations like this are not unusual, despite the hype.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that there will be active warfare between the US and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 345: European Leaders Say Ukraine's "Future is in the EU," Decline to Set Timeline
Following the first EU-Ukraine summit since the start of the invasion, held in Kyiv on Friday, European Union officials have stated that "Ukraine's future is in the EU," while European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen praised Ukraine for the reforms it has implemented as it aims to join the EU.
However, although Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made the case for a speedy acceptance of its application, EU officials refused to be drawn into discussing timelines. One senior EU diplomat told the Guardian "there is no fast track." The path for any candidate country is a long one," they added, continuing: "Ukraine is no exception here."
This comes as the US on Friday announced another $2.2B in aid for Ukraine, which will include the longer-range Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb, as well as spare parts and munitions for air defense systems. It does not include, however, the much coveted and even longer-range Army Tactical Missiles Systems, which Washington fears would be used to attack Russian territory.
Narrative A
The EU may want Kyiv to become a member state, but the prospect of Ukraine's membership generates a myriad of challenges for the bloc concerning money and constitutional reform. The change could see the EU on the hook for hundreds of billions of euros in funding and aid for Ukraine — an unattractive prospect even when the hopeful nation isn't experiencing immediate conflict. Kyiv can't just skip the queue ahead of nations like Turkey, it must face the stringent but necessary application process in full.
Narrative B
While lengthy reform is needed in both Ukraine and the EU before Kyiv can join the bloc, member states must avoid dragging their feet over enlargement policy. It may be perceived by some as "jumping the line," but the current conflict and Ukraine's recent sacrifices justify its place as a priority for EU membership. Funding from the bloc is not just an irritation for Western countries — it will make them integral to the reinvigoration of Ukraine's economy and infrastructure and tie Kyiv closer to the West. Safety and prosperity in Ukraine benefits the whole EU.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Brazil's Lula Says Bolsonaro Planned Riots
Brazilian Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaking in an interview with broadcaster RedeTV! on Thursday, accused predecessor Jair Bolsonaro of actively participating in planning the storming of government offices on Jan. 8.
The news came on the same day that Sen. Marcos do Val claimed he was invited to a meeting by a former Bolsonaro ally to discuss overturning the far-right leader's election loss.
Do Val alleged that the meeting took place on Dec. 9, with the offer extended by congressman Daniel Silveira.
Left narrative
Even if the coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil is not only a matter of justice but is also crucial for the future of the country's democracy. The current investigation is likely to reveal a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. Despite the many similarities to the US Capitol riots, the political influence of Brazil's military cannot be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.
Right narrative
The Jan. 8 storming of government buildings was relatively non-violent, despite the damage to the building interiors, with no grave injuries or deaths, and Bolsonaro never encouraged his supporters to gather that day, let alone attempt to stage a military coup. Mainstream media is promoting a conspiracy that doesn't exist while ignoring that Brazilians are fully capable of protesting and distrusting institutions without being guided by US politicians.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that former Brazilian Pres. Jair Bolsonaro will be extradited back to Brazil before leaving the US, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Credit Suisse: Swiss Prosecutors Begin Case Over Dirty Money Leak
Switzerland's Office of the Attorney General (OAG) on Thursday announced it had opened a case into last year's massive data leak of Credit Suisse's account records, which a media investigation alleged had showed the bank held more than $8B in illicit funds.
The leak, which exposed 18K accounts including those of human rights abusers, fraudsters, and sanctioned businessmen, covered records dating from the 1940s through the 2010s. It was first shared with Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung last February, which then shared it worldwide.
The OAG's criminal charges, reportedly brought by an anonymous source from inside the bank, include violations of the country's banking secrecy laws, damage to the bank, and the communication of confidential business information to foreign organizations or their agents.
Establishment-critical narrative
Switzerland's banking secrecy laws, along with their exploitation by the world's elite to conceal their wealth, have been common knowledge for centuries. Though the government has claimed it no longer conducts these tax evasion schemes, last year's data leak and the recent banking secrecy law seem to prove otherwise. Hopefully, this case will see the days of monarchs and oligarchs stashing their dirty money in the Alps finally come to an end.
Pro-establishment narrative
Most of the accounts uncovered in this leak have been or are in the process of being closed. This seemingly biased and coordinated attack against Credit Suisse fails to acknowledge that Switzerland has cooperated with 100 other countries under the Automatic Exchange of Information since 2017, an agreement the US isn't even a part of. Journalists and global NGOs should update their facts to reflect Switzerland and its banks' tremendous progress.
Nerd narrative
There is a 60% chance that, if the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, they will find it to be constitutional, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pope Arrives in South Sudan For 'Pilgrimage of Peace'
Pope Francis arrived in South Sudan on Friday to encourage a peaceful end to the country's conflict that has been ongoing for a decade and has taken the lives of hundreds of thousands and displaced millions.
The pope's arrival — accompanied by the head of the Anglican Communion and the leader of the Church of Scotland — is part of a broader African tour to call attention to conflict in the region that saw him visit the Democratic Republic of Congo earlier this week.
This is the Pope's first visit to South Sudan since it won its independence from Sudan in 2011. A civil war erupted two years later, and, despite a 2018 peace deal, clashes across political and ethnic lines have continued in the region.
Narrative A
This is a historical event in the making. Violence in the region has gone on for far too long. As a majority Christian country, the Pope is a highly respected figure, and hopefully, he will be the catalyst needed for political and faith leaders in South Sudan to bring peace and stability to the nation.
Narrative B
While this is an important trip, it's more symbolic than significant, as the Pope's visit alone will not bring the much-needed change to South Sudan. Besides just talking about peace-making, this visit needs to be accompanied by an overhaul in leadership. Until then, politicians will continue to act in their own interests with no regard for those whose lives they impact.
Narrative C
While there's still a long way to go, the young nation of South Sudan has been making progress. In February 2022, the transitional government celebrated two years of the Revitalized Government of National Unity, leaders' work continues to stabilize relations enough that the ceasefire remains active, the civilian death toll is decreasing by a significant measure, and democracy is in motion as government positions at the national and state level are being filled.
Musk Found Not Liable in Trial Over Tesla Tweets
On Friday, a US jury in San Francisco, Calif., found Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk and his company were not liable for misleading investors, who sought billions in damages over Musk's 2018 tweet that he had the "funding secured" to take the electric car company private.
Shareholders claimed that Musk misled them by tweeting on Aug. 7, 2018, that he had the funding to and was "considering taking Tesla private at $420," later adding that the "only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote."
In light of the nine-member jury verdict, Musk took to Twitter to say that he was "deeply appreciative of the jury's unanimous finding of innocence" and that "The wisdom of the people has prevailed!"
Narrative A
Though this jury concluded Musk wasn't responsible for investor losses, the fact remains that the world's second-richest man has a tweeting problem. While arguing he has the right to speak freely on the platform, he simultaneously claims that not everything he says should be taken seriously. Whether found guilty in a courtroom or not, Musk should listen to the pleas of his investors and take his volatile social media habits down a notch.
Narrative B
This was the one and only correct verdict. Musk's tweet wasn't fraudulent and he had no ill intent. He simply wanted to inform all shareholders — big and small — of his plans rather than keep the secret solely among the board and wealthy investors. Musk also knew he could use his wealth from SpaceX to take Tesla private if he needed to. He doesn't deserve to be penalized just because the deal didn't go through.
Nagorno-Karabakh: US Lawmakers Call for End of Azerbaijan's Blockade
A group of US Congressional lawmakers called on Azerbaijan to end the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh as the area remains cut off from critical supplies for a 53rd day. Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-N.J.) joined protestors at the Capitol on Thursday urging the US to hold Azerbaijan accountable.
Azerbaijan and neighboring Amenia are in a dispute over a four-mile road, called the Lachin Corridor, which connects the two countries in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azeri protesters have been allegedly blocking the road since mid-December, threatening food supplies to the 120K people in the region.
Armenia told the International Court of Justice on Monday that Azerbaijan’s blockade of the corridor was designed to allow “ethnic cleansing” of the area. At the hearing, Armenia requested the Court, also known as the "World Court," to order Azerbaijan to lift the blockade.
Narrative A
The international community is right to condemn Azerbaijan’s cruel blockade. Starting from Since Dec. 12, 2022, Azerbaijan’s government began this operation designed to deprive the 120K Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh of food, gas, and medicine. This is a tragic abuse of human rights, and Azerbaijan’s blockade must end immediately.
Narrative B
Armenia is manipulating the emotions of the world trying to represent a legitimate and peaceful environmental protest as somehow an "inhumane blockade." On Feb.1 alone, over 1,200 cars passed through the Lachin corridor in both directions. This issue is being misrepresented to the world and US lawmakers.
US Labor Report: 517K Jobs Created in January
On Friday, the US Dept. of Labor's latest jobs report showed 517K new jobs were created last month, far exceeding the expectations of most economists. Even after the December 2022 jobs report was revised, it showed just 260K jobs created.
At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% — its lowest point since 1969.
In its continued effort to recover from the COVID pandemic, the leisure and hospitality sector saw the greatest increase in jobs, adding 128K workers in January. Bars and restaurants led the way with 98.6K workers added in that sector, while hotel jobs increased by 14.8K.
Republican narrative
The Fed’s plan to bring inflation down to 2% is failing. Raising interest rates to cool the economy and create less demand for labor isn’t working. It can take some solace that wage increases have slowed by a small percentage, but that’s not likely to continue. A new approach is needed.
Democratic narrative
We have to look at the positives. Since Biden took office, the economy has added a record 12.1M jobs. There have been fewer layoffs than expected because employers are expecting the economy to bounce back later in the year and don’t want to risk being shorthanded. These are promising economic times for the US.
US Proposes Rules to Limit Sugar in School Meals
US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on Friday proposed new standards for the nation's school meal program — which serves breakfast to 15M children and lunch to 30M kids every day — including limits on added sugars for the first time ever.
The proposal aims to make 80% of the grains served by schools whole grain by the fall of 2024. Limits on sodium and high-sugar items — including cereals, yogurts, and flavored milks — would take effect by the fall of 2025.
Last year, a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed that added sugar in 92% of school breakfasts and 69% of lunches exceeded the dietary standard that no more than 10% of calories from meals should come from added sugars.
Narrative A
While in theory, this is a good proposal, in practice, it's not Faced with the current tumultuous economic environment, most schools likely won't be able to implement the regulations. And, even if they do, participation in the meal program, which has already been dipping since the COVID-related free-meal plans ended, will absolutely sink when kids are faced with strict meals, inadvertently pushing students to even unhealthier foods.
Narrative B
Better nutrition in schools is important, and this proposal is a major step toward achieving it. Not only would this tackle childhood obesity, but studies show kids who eat healthier get better grades. Best of all, this plan will be rolled out gradually to give schools time to meet the standards. And there’s enough flexibility in it for kids to keep drinking flavored milk and eat the occasional non-whole grain product.