This is a milestone in Biden’s attempt to resettle all the Guantánamo prisoners and close the book on an era of human rights mistakes. It’s been a challenge finding ways to do this in the face of restrictive US laws and tentative foreign countries, but this is a step in the right direction toward emptying the prison.
Prisoners at Guantánamo are dangerous terrorists, and they shouldn't be given the opportunity to return to the battlefield. Should Biden actually try to shut down Guantánamo, he risks not only a partisan backlash but also the safety and security of US allies.
There's a 50% chance that the US will close the Guantánamo Bay detention camp by December 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Stories about the alleged Chinese spy balloon are mushrooming, providing fertile ground for spreading the "Chinese threat" narrative. In the age of surveillance satellites, the assumption that Beijing is resorting to easily detectable balloons is absurd. The catchy "revelation" is primarily about undermining constructive China-US dialogue, and it is the US that is second to none in terms of using spy techniques on the PRC.
Since everything points to it being a Chinese spy balloon, the Biden administration must abandon its soft stance toward Beijing and respond decisively. With its blatant disregard for US territorial integrity, Beijing continues to fuel tensions, which is why Blinken's China trip needed to be canceled. This is a pivotal moment for Biden's leadership as well — the GOP is watching closely for a strong response.
In recent years, similar incidents have occurred time and again. Should the object prove to be a spy balloon, however, China would by no means be the only country that has recently explored the upper regions of the atmosphere for surveillance purposes via stratospheric balloons or high-altitude drones. The development of this technology is also being driven forward in the US. Situations like this are not unusual, despite the hype.
There is a 10% chance that there will be active warfare between the US and China before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
The EU may want Kyiv to become a member state, but the prospect of Ukraine's membership generates a myriad of challenges for the bloc concerning money and constitutional reform. The change could see the EU on the hook for hundreds of billions of euros in funding and aid for Ukraine — an unattractive prospect even when the hopeful nation isn't experiencing immediate conflict. Kyiv can't just skip the queue ahead of nations like Turkey, it must face the stringent but necessary application process in full.
While lengthy reform is needed in both Ukraine and the EU before Kyiv can join the bloc, member states must avoid dragging their feet over enlargement policy. It may be perceived by some as "jumping the line," but the current conflict and Ukraine's recent sacrifices justify its place as a priority for EU membership. Funding from the bloc is not just an irritation for Western countries — it will make them integral to the reinvigoration of Ukraine's economy and infrastructure and tie Kyiv closer to the West. Safety and prosperity in Ukraine benefits the whole EU.
There is a 40% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Even if the coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil is not only a matter of justice but is also crucial for the future of the country's democracy. The current investigation is likely to reveal a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. Despite the many similarities to the US Capitol riots, the political influence of Brazil's military cannot be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.
The Jan. 8 storming of government buildings was relatively non-violent, despite the damage to the building interiors, with no grave injuries or deaths, and Bolsonaro never encouraged his supporters to gather that day, let alone attempt to stage a military coup. Mainstream media is promoting a conspiracy that doesn't exist while ignoring that Brazilians are fully capable of protesting and distrusting institutions without being guided by US politicians.
There's a 10% chance that former Brazilian Pres. Jair Bolsonaro will be extradited back to Brazil before leaving the US, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Switzerland's banking secrecy laws, along with their exploitation by the world's elite to conceal their wealth, have been common knowledge for centuries. Though the government has claimed it no longer conducts these tax evasion schemes, last year's data leak and the recent banking secrecy law seem to prove otherwise. Hopefully, this case will see the days of monarchs and oligarchs stashing their dirty money in the Alps finally come to an end.
Most of the accounts uncovered in this leak have been or are in the process of being closed. This seemingly biased and coordinated attack against Credit Suisse fails to acknowledge that Switzerland has cooperated with 100 other countries under the Automatic Exchange of Information since 2017, an agreement the US isn't even a part of. Journalists and global NGOs should update their facts to reflect Switzerland and its banks' tremendous progress.
There is a 60% chance that, if the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, they will find it to be constitutional, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
This is a historical event in the making. Violence in the region has gone on for far too long. As a majority Christian country, the Pope is a highly respected figure, and hopefully, he will be the catalyst needed for political and faith leaders in South Sudan to bring peace and stability to the nation.
While this is an important trip, it's more symbolic than significant, as the Pope's visit alone will not bring the much-needed change to South Sudan. Besides just talking about peace-making, this visit needs to be accompanied by an overhaul in leadership. Until then, politicians will continue to act in their own interests with no regard for those whose lives they impact.
While there's still a long way to go, the young nation of South Sudan has been making progress. In February 2022, the transitional government celebrated two years of the Revitalized Government of National Unity, leaders' work continues to stabilize relations enough that the ceasefire remains active, the civilian death toll is decreasing by a significant measure, and democracy is in motion as government positions at the national and state level are being filled.
Though this jury concluded Musk wasn't responsible for investor losses, the fact remains that the world's second-richest man has a tweeting problem. While arguing he has the right to speak freely on the platform, he simultaneously claims that not everything he says should be taken seriously. Whether found guilty in a courtroom or not, Musk should listen to the pleas of his investors and take his volatile social media habits down a notch.
This was the one and only correct verdict. Musk's tweet wasn't fraudulent and he had no ill intent. He simply wanted to inform all shareholders — big and small — of his plans rather than keep the secret solely among the board and wealthy investors. Musk also knew he could use his wealth from SpaceX to take Tesla private if he needed to. He doesn't deserve to be penalized just because the deal didn't go through.
The international community is right to condemn Azerbaijan’s cruel blockade. Starting from Since Dec. 12, 2022, Azerbaijan’s government began this operation designed to deprive the 120K Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh of food, gas, and medicine. This is a tragic abuse of human rights, and Azerbaijan’s blockade must end immediately.
Armenia is manipulating the emotions of the world trying to represent a legitimate and peaceful environmental protest as somehow an "inhumane blockade." On Feb.1 alone, over 1,200 cars passed through the Lachin corridor in both directions. This issue is being misrepresented to the world and US lawmakers.
The Fed’s plan to bring inflation down to 2% is failing. Raising interest rates to cool the economy and create less demand for labor isn’t working. It can take some solace that wage increases have slowed by a small percentage, but that’s not likely to continue. A new approach is needed.
We have to look at the positives. Since Biden took office, the economy has added a record 12.1M jobs. There have been fewer layoffs than expected because employers are expecting the economy to bounce back later in the year and don’t want to risk being shorthanded. These are promising economic times for the US.
While in theory, this is a good proposal, in practice, it's not Faced with the current tumultuous economic environment, most schools likely won't be able to implement the regulations. And, even if they do, participation in the meal program, which has already been dipping since the COVID-related free-meal plans ended, will absolutely sink when kids are faced with strict meals, inadvertently pushing students to even unhealthier foods.
Better nutrition in schools is important, and this proposal is a major step toward achieving it. Not only would this tackle childhood obesity, but studies show kids who eat healthier get better grades. Best of all, this plan will be rolled out gradually to give schools time to meet the standards. And there’s enough flexibility in it for kids to keep drinking flavored milk and eat the occasional non-whole grain product.