UK, EU Announce Post-Brexit Northern Ireland Deal
On Monday, the UK and the EU introduced the "Windsor Framework," a deal meant to resolve issues and trade disputes over the Northern Ireland Accords.
As part of Brexit, Britain signed an agreement with the EU — the Northern Ireland Protocol — to avoid a hard border with Ireland. This created a barrier for some goods moving from Britain and left Northern Ireland subject to some EU rules even though it's no longer a member of the bloc.
Narrative A
The new deal is an important moment and marks a new stage in the relationship between the EU and the UK. It addresses the shortcomings of the Northern Ireland Protocol and delivers long-lasting solutions for trade rules that will work for the people of Northern Ireland. The Windsor Framework is a success.
Narrative B
While the Windsor Framework has so far been warmly received, it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to end the DUP's boycott. Previous trade agreements have been highly contentious and there's no guarantee that this deal will be popular.
Supreme Court Skeptical of Biden’s Student Loan Cancellation Plan
The conservative-majority US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) on Tuesday voiced skepticism over whether it’s within Pres. Joe Biden’s authority to implement his plan for student loan forgiveness by treating it as part of the COVID emergency.
This case was brought by six Republican-led states. SCOTUS is scheduled to hear a second case brought by two individual borrowers.
Democratic narrative
The GOP and those suing to repeal Biden’s loan forgiveness plan are doing it to block the president’s agenda while knowing full well the benefits it would have. The secretary of education has the right to provide debt relief in the face of national emergencies, like the COVID pandemic, and SCOTUS should prevent the Republicans’ obstruction.
Republican narrative
Biden’s plan to cancel student loan debt is not just irresponsible, it's unconstitutional. The executive branch does not have the power to spend $400B of taxpayer money without Congressional approval. Hopefully, this program is struck down and a constitutional way to address the bloated cost of higher education is found.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 38% chance that the US will forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Canada Bans TikTok From Government Devices
Canada announced Monday that it's banning TikTok from all government-issued mobile devices following growing Western concerns surrounding the security of the video-sharing social media app.
The government said the app, owned by Chinese firm ByteDance, presents an "unacceptable" level of risk to privacy and security, although Treasury Board Pres. Mona Fortier said there was no evidence of government information having been "compromised."
Anti-China narrative
While TikTok is extremely popular with younger generations, its Chinese ownership has caused justified fears over its potential use as a means to collect data on Westerners or promote misinformation and pro-China narratives. As China and the West are locked in an escalating technology war, Europe, the US, and Canada are rightly placing greater scrutiny on TikTok's security and data privacy.
Pro-China narrative
Recent decision-making by Canada, the US, and the EU surrounding TikTok is the latest move in the West's attempts to squeeze Chinese technology companies and lead a political witch hunt. While sanctions against the app will have only a slight impact on TikTok's market value, the real losers will be the Canadians prohibited from using the platform.
Nerd narrative
There's a 19% chance that the US will ban TikTok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 370: Bakhmut Situation Growing 'More and More Difficult,' Says Zelenskyy
In his nightly address on Monday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his troops faced an increasingly precarious situation in the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, where fierce clashes for control of the city have been ongoing for several months. "The situation is getting more and more difficult," Zelenskyy said. "The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense."
The message was echoed by the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, who on Tuesday described the situation as "extremely tense." He continued, saying: "Despite significant losses, the enemy threw in the most prepared assault units of Wagner, who are trying to break through the defences of our troops and surround the city."
Pro-Russia narrative
Russian forces are continuing to capture towns on the outskirts of Bakhmut and progressing with their plans of encircling the city. Its capture is important as it will pave the way to securing the rest of the Donetsk region.
Anti-Russia narrative
Fierce fighting has already been going on in Bakhmut for months and, even if Russia prevails, it will have lost so many men and so much equipment that the result could hardly be celebrated. A Moscow victory in the region might be a symbolic gain, but would provide little strategic benefit in the wider conflict.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that Russia will capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Watchdog Report on Afghan Collapse Blames Withdrawal, Lack of Planning
A report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released on Monday claimed that years of problems with planning and US oversight, along with the withdrawal of American troops, contributed to the collapse of the Western-backed government in Kabul in 2021.
The report also claimed that the withdrawal's announcement earlier in 2021 “destroyed the morale of Afghan soldiers and police” who had “long relied on the US military’s presence” for their own protection, as well as to ensure the Kabul government paid their salaries.
Republican narrative
The evidence continues to mount that the Biden admin.'s rushed and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan directly led to the fall of Kabul and the Taliban returning to power. There's no excuse for the unjust suffering the Afghan people have endured since then, all because Biden wanted to score some cheap political points. While it was Trump who signed the Doha Agreement, it was ultimately Biden who executed a botched withdrawal.
Democratic narrative
The US's disastrous invasion and occupation of Afghanistan under George W. Bush, not Biden's withdrawal, are to blame for the fall of Kabul and the current security crisis. The fact that Afghan security forces crashed immediately following the US withdrawal indicates that the security situation was simply unsustainable, and the collapse was essentially inevitable. There are, of course, valid criticisms of the withdrawal, but most have been unnecessary partisan attacks against Biden.
US Requests El Chapo's Son Be Extradited
According to the Mexican government, the US has requested that Mexico extradite Ovidio Guzman — the son of jailed drug lord Joaquin Guzman, known as "El Chapo." Ovidio was arrested in January for allegedly helping run his father's infamous Sinaloa drug cartel.
Ovidio was initially arrested in 2019 before security forces freed him after his cartel waged a war in response. He's accused by the US of helping oversee around a dozen methamphetamine labs in Sinaloa and conspiring to distribute cocaine and marijuana.
Pro-establishment narrative
There is a clear difference between the United State's relationship with Mexican cartels and that of the Mexican government. While Sinaloa is still the main distributor of illicit drugs in the US, cartel members know that they can't wage violent wars on the US military and police as they do south of the border. When the US government wants a drug lord, it will find him, arrest him, and put him behind bars for a long time.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US media has an incredibly inaccurate and racialized perspective of the so-called "drug war" in Mexico. Drug trafficking and violence in Mexico have much more to do with how criminal networks work in conjunction with the Mexican state than what amounts to occasional military operations against said networks. Even as the US and Mexican governments' response has expanded and militarized over the years, drug smuggling and use in the US have only increased.
Israeli-American Killed in Jericho Attack
An Israeli-American, identified as 26-year-old Elan Ganeles, was killed in a drive-by shooting Monday near Beit HaArava, an Israeli settlement outside of Jericho. The shooters are still unknown but assumed to be Palestinians.
Israeli officials said the gunmen carried out multiple drive-by shootings along a major highway outside Jericho, though the only reported casualty was Ganeles. The US Dept. of State also confirmed that Ganeles was a US citizen.
Pro-Israel narrative
The perpetrators of this cruel terrorist attack must be held accountable. Elan Ganeles, a young man with his whole life ahead of him, was killed in cold blood by Palestinian terrorists. The settle rampage on Sunday was, of course, barbaric and monstrous, but that doesn't justify the killing of an innocent young man. Israeli forces must pursue these terrorists and acquire justice for Ganeles's grieving family.
Pro-Palestine narrative
No one wants to see killings in the holy land, but it's the occupation that has caused these tragedies. Palestinians are facing a state-backed campaign of ethnic cleansing and are lashing out against their colonizers. Emboldened by international silence after killing more Palestinians last year than in any other year since the Second Intifada, the occupation is becoming even more violent.
Dominion Lawsuit: Murdoch Says Fox Hosts Endorsed False Election Claims
Fox News' controlling owner, Rupert Murdoch, admitted that some of the network's broadcasters endorsed false claims regarding the 2020 Election results. Dominion Voting Systems is suing Fox for $1.6B claiming the network made false allegations about the ballot technology company that hurt their business.
While Murdoch accepted that some commentators had endorsed the claims, the company's attorneys maintain that a "handful of selective quotes" hold no basis for a defamation lawsuit and that executives at Fox Corp. had no role in the matter.
Left narrative
It is clear from Murdoch's own admission that the media tycoon chose not to intervene and stop Fox's continued false claims surrounding the validity of the 2020 election. The picture that emerges is that both Murdoch and Fox chose to sidestep the truth in order to appease a pro-Trump audience that was angered when confronted with a loss. Fox shouldn't have aligned itself with extremists regarding election denial.
Right narrative
Freedom of the press is foundational to democracy, and Fox News’s right to report on the news, and provide opinion and analysis, is under attack. The allegations aired were extremely newsworthy at the time, and Fox gave Dominion a platform to respond. It will be extremely difficult to prove “actual malice,” even if a handful of individual commentators did support the claims, so Fox will undoubtedly prevail, and Fox journalists will continue to do their vital job.
Nerd narrative
There is a 48% chance that the 2024 US Presidential Election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Al Jazeera: Twitter Under Fire for Allegedly Censoring Palestinian Public Figures
According to an Al Jazeera report published on Tuesday, digital rights groups are accusing Twitter and Facebook of censoring Palestinian journalists after a number of prominent accounts were suspended.
On Dec. 3, Washington, DC-based Palestinian journalist Said Arikat was suspended for nearly a month, which he believes was for being outspoken about Palestine and Israel. On Jan. 8, Noura Erakat, a Palestinian lawyer and human rights advocate, was suspended but was reinstated a day later.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Palestinian voices have long been silenced by tech giants, and Twitter under Musk has continued this trend of suppressing journalists who speak out against abuses in the Middle East. Musk purports to be a free speech absolutist, yet his regime suspended a Palestinian journalist without reason — a dangerous violation of his rights that has been alarmingly ignored by the mainstream media.
Pro-Israel narrative
Said Arikat is a dangerous peddler of propaganda whose influence isn't limited to his following online. He deliberately slandered Israel at a State Department press briefing by saying an Israeli soldier had shot "point blank at an unarmed Palestinian," when in reality the officer was firing at a terrorist — just one of his many lies that can lead to anti-Semitic violence and shouldn't be tolerated.
Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Punishment For Schoolgirls Poisoning
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday stated that the perpetrators of the alleged poisonings of schoolgirls across the country must face the death penalty, as responsible organizations are still investigating the origin of this crime.
This comes as such incidents have allegedly intensified this week, with nearly 80 more schools reportedly being targeted by gas attacks on Sunday – the same day that Ali Pour-Tabatabaie, a journalist following the news in the religious city of Qom, was arrested, according to local reformist outlets.
Anti-Iran narrative
While Iranian officials have described the poisoning as a deliberate criminal act, the Islamic Republic has failed to take action to protect Iranian girls and bring to justice those responsible. This alone would amount to dereliction of duty, but worse still, the fact that women and girls have been the target of the ongoing crackdowns brings the government's own possible role into question. The international community must hold an external investigation.
Pro-Iran narrative
By launching a criminal investigation into these disgraceful attacks against schoolgirls, the Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated its commitment to encouraging Iranian girls to study, work, and think in a safe environment in order to become protagonists of the nation's progress. It is nonsensical and malevolent to try to blame Tehran for such incidents.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by January 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.