28 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

UK, EU Announce Post-Brexit Northern Ireland Deal

Facts

  • As part of Brexit, Britain signed an agreement with the EU — the Northern Ireland Protocol — to avoid a hard border with Ireland. This created a barrier for some goods moving from Britain and left Northern Ireland subject to some EU rules even though it's no longer a member of the bloc.
  • Northern Ireland depends on a power-sharing administration between unionists and nationalists, and its semi-autonomous government has been upended since last year when British unionist politicians walked out to protest trade rules. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has said it would analyze the deal's details before delivering its verdict.
  • On Monday, the UK and the EU introduced the "Windsor Framework," a deal meant to resolve issues and trade disputes over the Northern Ireland Accords.
  • The deal also introduces a "Stormont brake," which allows the Northern Ireland Assembly to raise objections to new goods rules. Meanwhile, the EU will be allowed to take "remedial measures" if Northern Ireland begins to diverge significantly from the bloc's rules.
  • The Windsor Framework comes more than six years after British voters chose to leave the EU and three years since the UK left the bloc.
  • Under the new agreement, goods from Britain to Northern Ireland will travel through a "green lane" with significantly reduced checks and paperwork, and a separate "red lane" — subject to normal checks — will be reserved for goods that may move to the EU.

Spin

Narrative A

The new deal is an important moment and marks a new stage in the relationship between the EU and the UK. It addresses the shortcomings of the Northern Ireland Protocol and delivers long-lasting solutions for trade rules that will work for the people of Northern Ireland. The Windsor Framework is a success.

Narrative B

While the Windsor Framework has so far been warmly received, it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to end the DUP's boycott. Previous trade agreements have been highly contentious and there's no guarantee that this deal will be popular.

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Supreme Court Skeptical of Biden’s Student Loan Cancellation Plan

Facts

  • Previously, the conservative-leaning SCOTUS has ruled against the Biden administration in multiple cases regarding COVID-era policies, including vaccine rules and eviction moratoriums. A decision isn’t expected for months.
  • The case made it to SCOTUS after an 8th Circuit Court panel reversed a lower court ruling that said the states could not sue because they lacked standing. A district judge sided with the two students challenging the program in the second case.
  • The conservative-majority US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) on Tuesday voiced skepticism over whether it’s within Pres. Joe Biden’s authority to implement his plan for student loan forgiveness by treating it as part of the COVID emergency.
  • The six GOP-led states — Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Carolina — believe the Biden administration misused the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students Act of 2003 (the "HEROES Act") during the COVID pandemic.
  • The White House says 26M people have already applied and 16M have already had their relief approved under the program.
  • This case was brought by six Republican-led states. SCOTUS is scheduled to hear a second case brought by two individual borrowers.

Spin

Democratic narrative

The GOP and those suing to repeal Biden’s loan forgiveness plan are doing it to block the president’s agenda while knowing full well the benefits it would have. The secretary of education has the right to provide debt relief in the face of national emergencies, like the COVID pandemic, and SCOTUS should prevent the Republicans’ obstruction.

Republican narrative

Biden’s plan to cancel student loan debt is not just irresponsible, it's unconstitutional. The executive branch does not have the power to spend $400B of taxpayer money without Congressional approval. Hopefully, this program is struck down and a constitutional way to address the bloated cost of higher education is found.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 38% chance that the US will forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Canada Bans TikTok From Government Devices

Facts

  • Canada announced Monday that it's banning TikTok from all government-issued mobile devices following growing Western concerns surrounding the security of the video-sharing social media app.
  • In response, TikTok claimed it was "curious" that Canada only announced the decision after the EU and the US without contacting it about their concerns. A company spokesperson said it was willing to meet with government officials to discuss the matter.
  • Last week, Canada's federal privacy watchdog, as well as three provincial counterparts, announced a probe into whether the app complies with the nation's privacy legislation. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said the decision may be the "first step" or the "only step" concerning the matter.
  • The ban will take effect on Tuesday and follows similar actions taken in the US and the EU, where bans were implemented in December 2022 and last week, respectively.
  • The government said the app, owned by Chinese firm ByteDance, presents an "unacceptable" level of risk to privacy and security, although Treasury Board Pres. Mona Fortier said there was no evidence of government information having been "compromised."
  • The news comes after the Canadian Intelligence Security Service alleged that there was Chinese interference in the country's elections in 2021, prompting an increase in scrutiny surrounding China's role in the country.

Spin

Anti-China narrative

While TikTok is extremely popular with younger generations, its Chinese ownership has caused justified fears over its potential use as a means to collect data on Westerners or promote misinformation and pro-China narratives. As China and the West are locked in an escalating technology war, Europe, the US, and Canada are rightly placing greater scrutiny on TikTok's security and data privacy.

Pro-China narrative

Recent decision-making by Canada, the US, and the EU surrounding TikTok is the latest move in the West's attempts to squeeze Chinese technology companies and lead a political witch hunt. While sanctions against the app will have only a slight impact on TikTok's market value, the real losers will be the Canadians prohibited from using the platform.

Nerd narrative

There's a 19% chance that the US will ban TikTok before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 370: Bakhmut Situation Growing 'More and More Difficult,' Says Zelenskyy

Facts

  • Elsewhere, Russian authorities temporarily closed the airspace around, and suspended all flights to and from, St Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport on Tuesday, after unconfirmed reports suggested that an unidentified object had been spotted in the sky near the transport hub. The restrictions were later lifted and Russia's defense ministry claimed the airspace was closed due to a training exercise used to simulate an emergency.
  • Further afield, China accused the US of "outright bullying and double standards," after a number of Chinese entities were placed on US sanctions lists on Monday. The country's foreign ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said: "While the US has intensified its efforts to send weapons to one of the parties to the conflict, resulting in an endless war, it has frequently spread false information about China’s supply of weapons to Russia, taking the opportunity to sanction Chinese companies for no reason."
  • In his nightly address on Monday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his troops faced an increasingly precarious situation in the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, where fierce clashes for control of the city have been ongoing for several months. "The situation is getting more and more difficult," Zelenskyy said. "The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense."
  • Meanwhile, an explosion was recorded overnight in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar Krai, setting fire to a Rosneft oil refinery in the city of Tuapse. Russian officials did not acknowledge the blast, but said they had foiled a Ukrainian drone attack in the same region.
  • The message was echoed by the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, who on Tuesday described the situation as "extremely tense." He continued, saying: "Despite significant losses, the enemy threw in the most prepared assault units of Wagner, who are trying to break through the defences of our troops and surround the city."
  • Ukrainian officials said two civilians were killed and 13 more were injured in Russian attacks on the wider Donetsk region in the past day. Russian attacks were also recorded in the regions of Luhansk, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia, as well as Kharkiv and Kherson — there were no additional reports of civilian casualties at this stage.

Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian forces are continuing to capture towns on the outskirts of Bakhmut and progressing with their plans of encircling the city. Its capture is important as it will pave the way to securing the rest of the Donetsk region.

Anti-Russia narrative

Fierce fighting has already been going on in Bakhmut for months and, even if Russia prevails, it will have lost so many men and so much equipment that the result could hardly be celebrated. A Moscow victory in the region might be a symbolic gain, but would provide little strategic benefit in the wider conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that Russia will capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Watchdog Report on Afghan Collapse Blames Withdrawal, Lack of Planning

Facts

  • A report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released on Monday claimed that years of problems with planning and US oversight, along with the withdrawal of American troops, contributed to the collapse of the Western-backed government in Kabul in 2021.
  • The report also claimed that the withdrawal's announcement earlier in 2021 “destroyed the morale of Afghan soldiers and police” who had “long relied on the US military’s presence” for their own protection, as well as to ensure the Kabul government paid their salaries.
  • The report disclosed that American troops left behind a total of $7.2B in military equipment, including at least 78 aircraft, over 9K air-to-ground munitions, over 40K vehicles, and more than 300K weapons.
  • The report, mandated by Congress immediately after the fall of Kabul, claimed that both the Pentagon and Dept. of State were unresponsive to some of its requests for information, but, in their own official responses, the government agencies said they cooperated with the investigation and disputed some of the findings.
  • The US and Taliban signed the Doha agreement in 2020 under the Trump admin., which the incumbent Biden admin. went through with in 2021, withdrawing all US forces as the Taliban swept the country after 20 years of war.
  • Watchdog John Sopko also blamed the Trump admin.'s deal with the Taliban, known as the Doha Agreement, for instilling “a sense of abandonment” in both Afghan forces and the general public.

Spin

Republican narrative

The evidence continues to mount that the Biden admin.'s rushed and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan directly led to the fall of Kabul and the Taliban returning to power. There's no excuse for the unjust suffering the Afghan people have endured since then, all because Biden wanted to score some cheap political points. While it was Trump who signed the Doha Agreement, it was ultimately Biden who executed a botched withdrawal.

Democratic narrative

The US's disastrous invasion and occupation of Afghanistan under George W. Bush, not Biden's withdrawal, are to blame for the fall of Kabul and the current security crisis. The fact that Afghan security forces crashed immediately following the US withdrawal indicates that the security situation was simply unsustainable, and the collapse was essentially inevitable. There are, of course, valid criticisms of the withdrawal, but most have been unnecessary partisan attacks against Biden.

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US Requests El Chapo's Son Be Extradited

Facts

  • According to the Mexican government, the US has requested that Mexico extradite Ovidio Guzman — the son of jailed drug lord Joaquin Guzman, known as "El Chapo." Ovidio was arrested in January for allegedly helping run his father's infamous Sinaloa drug cartel.
  • El Chapo is already facing a life sentence in the US after smuggling roughly 154 tons of cocaine, as well as heroin and methamphetamine, into the US over the course of 25 years. He and his associates earned an estimated $14B during that time.
  • Following the failed 2019 operation, the US offered $5M for information leading to Ovidio's arrest. The January arrest was also met with violence, leaving dozens dead.
  • Ovidio was initially arrested in 2019 before security forces freed him after his cartel waged a war in response. He's accused by the US of helping oversee around a dozen methamphetamine labs in Sinaloa and conspiring to distribute cocaine and marijuana.
  • The 32-year-old — who also allegedly ordered hits on informants, a drug trafficker, and a singer who refused to perform at his wedding — secured a court order in January blocking his immediate extradition to the US, under which Washington was given until March 5 to present an official request.
  • The Mexican Attorney General must now file a request before the federal control judge in the state of Mexico and set a hearing date. Ovidio's lawyers are expected to try and block the extradition during the hearings at the Federal Criminal Justice Center in the coming days.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

There is a clear difference between the United State's relationship with Mexican cartels and that of the Mexican government. While Sinaloa is still the main distributor of illicit drugs in the US, cartel members know that they can't wage violent wars on the US military and police as they do south of the border. When the US government wants a drug lord, it will find him, arrest him, and put him behind bars for a long time.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US media has an incredibly inaccurate and racialized perspective of the so-called "drug war" in Mexico. Drug trafficking and violence in Mexico have much more to do with how criminal networks work in conjunction with the Mexican state than what amounts to occasional military operations against said networks. Even as the US and Mexican governments' response has expanded and militarized over the years, drug smuggling and use in the US have only increased.

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Israeli-American Killed in Jericho Attack

Facts

  • An Israeli-American, identified as 26-year-old Elan Ganeles, was killed in a drive-by shooting Monday near Beit HaArava, an Israeli settlement outside of Jericho. The shooters are still unknown but assumed to be Palestinians.
  • Ganeles, a recent Colombia University graduate from West Hartford, Connecticut, will reportedly be buried in Israel before his parents return to the US to sit shiva.
  • Israel has launched regular raids throughout the West Bank following a spree of Palestinian attacks last year, including a raid in Nablus last week that killed 11 people and injured over 100. A Palestinian gunman also opened fire near a synagogue last month in an east Jerusalem settlement, killing seven people.
  • Israeli officials said the gunmen carried out multiple drive-by shootings along a major highway outside Jericho, though the only reported casualty was Ganeles. The US Dept. of State also confirmed that Ganeles was a US citizen.
  • The attack, after which the shooter and accomplices set their vehicle on fire and fled, followed settler riots earlier near Nablus over the shooting of two Israelis by Palestinian gunmen on Sunday, for which Israel sent hundreds of troops to the northern West Bank.
  • The riots in Huwara and other villages left one Palestinian dead, dozens of buildings burned, and around 95 people injured from tear gas.

Spin

Pro-Israel

The perpetrators of this cruel terrorist attack must be held accountable. Elan Ganeles, a young man with his whole life ahead of him, was killed in cold blood by Palestinian terrorists. The settle rampage on Sunday was, of course, barbaric and monstrous, but that doesn't justify the killing of an innocent young man. Israeli forces must pursue these terrorists and acquire justice for Ganeles's grieving family.

Pro-Palestine

No one wants to see killings in the holy land, but it's the occupation that has caused these tragedies. Palestinians are facing a state-backed campaign of ethnic cleansing and are lashing out against their colonizers. Emboldened by international silence after killing more Palestinians last year than in any other year since the Second Intifada, the occupation is becoming even more violent.

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Dominion Lawsuit: Murdoch Says Fox Hosts Endorsed False Election Claims

Facts

  • A five-week trial is slated to start on April 17.
  • Fox News' controlling owner, Rupert Murdoch, admitted that some of the network's broadcasters endorsed false claims regarding the 2020 Election results. Dominion Voting Systems is suing Fox for $1.6B claiming the network made false allegations about the ballot technology company that hurt their business.
  • Murdoch and his son, Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch, have been questioned in recent months surrounding the lawsuit, alongside Fox's chief legal and policy officer Viet Dinh. Fox News continues to claim that the core of the case "remains about freedom of the press and freedom of speech."
  • Murdoch's remarks were made public in a legal filing as part of the lawsuit. Murdoch claimed that in hindsight, he wished Fox was stronger in "denouncing" claims of election fraud, with the media tycoon also describing Trump's allegations as "damaging."
  • The Delaware court filings also disclosed that Murdoch admitted to having the authority to prevent officials who controversially questioned the election results — including Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, and Mike Lindell — from appearing on Fox News, yet he chose not to.
  • While Murdoch accepted that some commentators had endorsed the claims, the company's attorneys maintain that a "handful of selective quotes" hold no basis for a defamation lawsuit and that executives at Fox Corp. had no role in the matter.

Spin

Left narrative

It is clear from Murdoch's own admission that the media tycoon chose not to intervene and stop Fox's continued false claims surrounding the validity of the 2020 election. The picture that emerges is that both Murdoch and Fox chose to sidestep the truth in order to appease a pro-Trump audience that was angered when confronted with a loss. Fox shouldn't have aligned itself with extremists regarding election denial.

Right narrative

Freedom of the press is foundational to democracy, and Fox News’s right to report on the news, and provide opinion and analysis, is under attack. The allegations aired were extremely newsworthy at the time, and Fox gave Dominion a platform to respond. It will be extremely difficult to prove “actual malice,” even if a handful of individual commentators did support the claims, so Fox will undoubtedly prevail, and Fox journalists will continue to do their vital job.

Nerd narrative

There is a 48% chance that the 2024 US Presidential Election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Al Jazeera: Twitter Under Fire for Allegedly Censoring Palestinian Public Figures

Facts

  • According to an Al Jazeera report published on Tuesday, digital rights groups are accusing Twitter and Facebook of censoring Palestinian journalists after a number of prominent accounts were suspended.
  • Arikat served as UN spokesman in Iraq from 2005 to 2010 and has been present at State Department press briefings for nearly 20 years as Al-Quds' Washington bureau chief — one of Palestine’s most popular newspapers.
  • In the wake of Arikat’s Twitter account suspension, Meta shut down Al-Quds’ Facebook page that same month, sparking more outrage from pro-Palestine advocates.
  • On Dec. 3, Washington, DC-based Palestinian journalist Said Arikat was suspended for nearly a month, which he believes was for being outspoken about Palestine and Israel. On Jan. 8, Noura Erakat, a Palestinian lawyer and human rights advocate, was suspended but was reinstated a day later.
  • Twitter reportedly notified Arikat and Erakat that the suspensions were because both of their accounts had been hacked. However, they claim that, upon further inquiry, the social media company failed to provide any other information.

Spin

Pro-Palestine

Palestinian voices have long been silenced by tech giants, and Twitter under Musk has continued this trend of suppressing journalists who speak out against abuses in the Middle East. Musk purports to be a free speech absolutist, yet his regime suspended a Palestinian journalist without reason — a dangerous violation of his rights that has been alarmingly ignored by the mainstream media.

Pro-Israel

Said Arikat is a dangerous peddler of propaganda whose influence isn't limited to his following online. He deliberately slandered Israel at a State Department press briefing by saying an Israeli soldier had shot "point blank at an unarmed Palestinian," when in reality the officer was firing at a terrorist — just one of his many lies that can lead to anti-Semitic violence and shouldn't be tolerated.

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Iran's Supreme Leader Orders Punishment For Schoolgirls Poisoning

Facts

  • Iran's prosecutor general announced in mid-to-late February he would launch a criminal investigation into the apparent deliberate poisoning of schoolgirls since November. While no girls have died, dozens have suffered from respiratory issues, nausea, dizziness, and fatigue believed to be the result of toxic gas.
  • Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday stated that the perpetrators of the alleged poisonings of schoolgirls across the country must face the death penalty, as responsible organizations are still investigating the origin of this crime.
  • Iranian women and girls have been at the front line of months-long, nationwide demonstrations in the country, which have been quelled by security forces. Activists claim that more than 520 people have been killed and over 19K have been detained.
  • On Saturday, the start of Iran's five-day work and school week, dozens of schools across ten provinces were also attacked, as CNN verified using video and witness testimony. As of last Wednesday, no one had been arrested in connection with the incidents.
  • The widespread poisoning of more than 1K female students has reportedly been caused by a "mild poison," allegedly as part of an extremist response to women and girls leading role in nationwide protests that have rocked Iran since the death of Mahsa Amini in September.
  • This comes as such incidents have allegedly intensified this week, with nearly 80 more schools reportedly being targeted by gas attacks on Sunday – the same day that Ali Pour-Tabatabaie, a journalist following the news in the religious city of Qom, was arrested, according to local reformist outlets.

Spin

Anti-Iran narrative

While Iranian officials have described the poisoning as a deliberate criminal act, the Islamic Republic has failed to take action to protect Iranian girls and bring to justice those responsible. This alone would amount to dereliction of duty, but worse still, the fact that women and girls have been the target of the ongoing crackdowns brings the government's own possible role into question. The international community must hold an external investigation.

Pro-Iran narrative

By launching a criminal investigation into these disgraceful attacks against schoolgirls, the Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated its commitment to encouraging Iranian girls to study, work, and think in a safe environment in order to become protagonists of the nation's progress. It is nonsensical and malevolent to try to blame Tehran for such incidents.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by January 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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