SCOTUS Hearing Two Cases on Officials Blocking Citizens on Social Media
The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) on Tuesday heard oral arguments in two cases — O'Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier and Lindke v. Freed — related to liability for public officials who block followers on their personal social media accounts.
O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier centers around Michelle O’Connor and TJ Zane — two elected members of a California school board — who used their personal Facebook and Twitter accounts to reach the public.
Pro-establishment narrative
Elected officials shouldn’t have to treat all their social media interactions as official business. And, in turn, if they’re not using a social media platform to conduct government actions, it’s their First Amendment right to block anyone they choose. This is a nonpartisan issue, as the Biden administration is taking the same position as Trump supporters.
Establishment-critical narrative
Democratic rights must be protected as much online as in reality. In both realms, the First Amendment exists to protect citizens from government censorship and to prevent the government from suppressing dissent. Blocking citizens online is the same as silencing someone at a public meeting or a government proceeding. SCOTUS should find for the plaintiffs in both these cases.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that the ACLU will argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Southern California Wildfire Forces Thousands to Evacuate
At least 4K residents have been forced to evacuate their homes near Aguanga in Southern California due to a raging wildfire. The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning of extreme fire danger in parts of Los Angeles and Riverside counties.
Though the wildfire, fueled by gusty Santa Ana winds, has been 10% contained, it has destroyed three structures, threatened nearly 2.4K homes and buildings, and injured a firefighter.
Narrative A
Climate change is the driving force behind wildfires in California and has raised the risk of quick-spreading fires by 25%. The climate emergency is real and must factor into the calculations of Californians as they work and live in increasingly dangerous wildland-urban interface areas growing more precarious in a warming world.
Narrative B
Complex, long-standing natural phenomena are causing the fires in Southern California. Dry winds and low humidity have dried out grass and brush in rural areas, and the Santa Ana winds provide ample conditions for flames to spread. California has historically had very problematic fire conditions — it's far and above the environmental alarmism of squarely blaming climate change.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover by the end of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hundreds of Thousands of Afghans Leaving Pakistan Following Immigration Deadline
Hundreds of thousands of Afghans are believed to be leaving Pakistan as part of an order by Islamabad for undocumented migrants to either exit the country or be deported as of Nov. 1.
While Islamabad's order is aimed at all undocumented migrants, UN agencies estimate that there are over 2M Afghans currently illegally residing in Pakistan without paperwork, at least 600K of whom entered the state after the Taliban's 2021 return to power in Afghanistan.
Pro-establishment narrative
The current policy of forced repatriation of Afghan refugees prioritizes misconceptions concerning security over human rights. Many forced back to live under the Taliban-led government will be exposed to inhumane conditions and face the immediate threat of persecution. The Afghan population in Pakistan cannot be blamed for deep-rooted and multidimensional factors — including a current economic crisis — that has undermined security within the state. Pakistan must halt its expulsion order.
Establishment-critical narrative
So far, the repatriation of Afghans — amongst other undocumented immigrants — has taken place in a safe and respectful manner. The voluntary process has been smooth due to Pakistan's establishment of facilities to provide water, tents, and food services, broadly leading to the satisfaction of those who have begun their journey home. While Pakistan will continue to provide relief and humanitarian assistance to refugees until they've been repatriated, Islamabad has a duty to prioritize its own citizen's safety and economy over anything else.
Nerd narrative
There is an 82% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Zelenskyy Feels Betrayed by Western Allies
Amid signs of fading US and European support for Ukraine following a 20-month war with Russia, a report in TIME magazine this week suggested that Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy feels angered and betrayed by his Western allies.
The publication's reporters followed Zelenskyy from Washington back to Kyiv after the Ukrainian leader visited America in September. Following the trip, in which Zelenskyy sought to convince US lawmakers to give Ukraine additional military aid, he told TIME that dwindling support and the world getting used to the Ukraine conflict was the "scariest thing."
Pro-establishment narrative
After 20 months of war between Ukraine and Russia, Western attention on the conflict is understandably fading, particularly following the eruption of violence between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East. Polls show that fewer and fewer Americans want to maintain funding for a Ukraine conflict whose outcome remains far from clear.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
This article by TIME magazine reflects a subjective opinion on Ukraine after a few days spent in the country. Ukrainians have to live and breathe in the country every moment of every day. Only Ukrainians know what it is to fight Russian aggression every day. This is one of those pieces with unnamed sources being used for political agendas for America to take Ukraine's military funding away.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Myanmar Seeking to Repatriate Rohingya Refugees From Bangladesh
Officials from Myanmar traveled to Bangladesh on Tuesday to meet with Rohingya refugee families and discuss their repatriation, building upon a China-brokered pilot plan agreed in April between the two countries to return roughly 3K refugees by December.
Bangladesh's Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner Mizanur Rahman said that this trip comes as part of a verification process focused on the extended family members of those selected earlier for repatriation, including newborn children and wives of newlyweds.
Narrative A
The quality of life within camps inhabited by Rohingya in Bangladesh is only deteriorating, and barely keeping afloat thanks to humanitarian aid. The slow processing of data provided by Bangladesh to the Myanmar authorities implies that there is little real desire to see Rohingya people return to their homeland. More pressure must be applied to Myanmar to oversee and ensure safe and peaceful repatriation.
Narrative B
Bangladesh's pilot plan ignores a host of human rights concerns surrounding the potential return of Rohingyas to Myanmar. Bangladesh is well aware of the potential consequences of blindly returning the persecuted Muslim community to the hands of a discriminatory military junta. Bangladesh must rethink its agreement with Myanmar, and provide a real opportunity for its refugees to live a normal life.
US Infant Mortality Rate Rises for First Time in 20 Years
Infant mortality rates in the US rose last year, for the first time in 20 years. According to a report released on Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Vital Statistics, the US recorded 5.6 infant deaths per 1K live births in 2022, a 3% increase from 2021.
White and Native American infants, infant boys, and babies born at 37 weeks or earlier had significant death rate increases. Preeclampsia and bacterial meningitis, the two leading causes of infant deaths from maternal complications, also had large increases, rising 8% and 14%.
Left narrative
Planned, intentional pregnancies tend to have healthier infant outcomes. With the rollback of Roe v. Wade, and the conservative crackdown on reproductive healthcare and abortion rights, more women are being forced to carry babies they did not plan and cannot support. By removing the ability for women to decide if and when to have children, more babies are being born in unhealthy circumstances.
Right narrative
There are many reasons why infant mortality figures may be higher in the US, ranging from illegal immigration to the disruption of COVID measures on healthcare systems. A detailed examination of the statistics and causes must be carried out before ascribing any potential linkage to abortion access.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Path Cleared for Saudi Arabia to Host 2034 World Cup
Saudi Arabia is on the cusp of earning the right to host the 2034 World Cup after Australia’s decision not to enter the race before FIFA’s Tuesday deadline left the kingdom as the lone declared bidder.
FIFA, which limited bids only to countries from Asia and Oceania, said it will make its final announcement of the 2034 host in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Narrative A
Saudi Arabia’s record on human rights is appalling and the country shouldn't be allowed to “sportswash” this reputation by being allowed to host major sporting events. FIFA must get human rights commitments from the kingdom before it officially grants it the honor of hosting the World Cup.
Narrative B
This is the next step in Saudi Arabia’s transformation into a welcoming home for all sports. The kingdom’s dream is to be a leading nation in world sport, and those who accuse it of “sportwashing” are missing the point. The kingdom is seeking to grow its GDP, and sports are a key driver in that pursuit.
Gaza: Rafah Border With Egypt Opens for Limited Evacuations
After being closed during three weeks of conflict, Gaza's border crossing with Egypt opened for partial evacuations for the first time on Wednesday. While the Rafah crossing has so far allowed an estimated 200 aid trucks to pass, it was the first time people were allowed to cross — allowing an estimated 90 injured Palestinians and hundreds of dual citizens to enter Egypt.
According to reporting from Reuters, the deal between Israel, Egypt, and Hamas was mediated by Qatar with collaboration from the US. A source for the publication said it's unknown how long the border crossing would remain open.
Pro-Palestine narrative
After weeks of bombardment and blockade, the limited opening of the Rafah border crossing is a welcome move — allowing those who are seriously injured to seek immediate medical treatment, as well as allowing dual nationals to escape. However, too many in Gaza remain perilously close to death in this humanitarian catastrophe.
Pro-Israel narrative
After Hamas' attack on Israel, the country was right to launch a war on the terror organization and seek to root it out. However, the war has also caused significant hardships on civilians so this deal mediated by Qatar is welcomed by Israel.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline, and medicine in Gaza by December 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Senate Confirms Lew as Ambassador to Israel
The US Senate on Tuesday voted 53-43 to confirm former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew as the new ambassador to Israel.
Lew's confirmation garnered the support of all Democrats and two Republicans — Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
Republican narrative
Lew isn't the right fit for this post, and his confirmation demonstrates Democrats aren’t taking Israel’s security seriously. He showed his sympathy to Iran by playing a key role in the weak nuclear deal that freed up money for Tehran — which it used to fund Hamas — and was opposed by Israel. It's a slap in the face to send him to be ambassador to one of America’s greatest allies.
Democratic narrative
Republicans' accusations against Lew are meritless. Lew recognizes how much of a threat Iran is to stability and the Middle East, but he also knows the Iran nuclear deal made the world safer until Trump pulled out of it. Even Israeli officials have voiced their approval of Lew, who will fight to maintain Israel’s security.
US Fed Holds Interest Rate Steady for 2nd Time
The US Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it will not increase interest rates after concluding a two-day meeting that saw officials unanimously decide to leave the benchmark rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has stood since July.
This marks the second consecutive time the rate has been held steady after a run of 11 rate hikes since March 2022 to counter runaway inflation, which has seen the benchmark rate reach a 22-year high.
Establishment-critical narrative
Powell and the Fed are playing with fire as the central bank pauses interest rate hikes yet again despite persistent inflation. While inflation isn’t at the record-high of 9% from last year, it's still far above the 2% target, and the Fed’s current rate isn’t moving the needle. While it might be painful for some, the US economy must cool down, and that still hasn’t happened yet.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Fed is taking a prudent approach, pausing rate hikes after 11 consecutive increases to observe how the economy responds to the previous moves. While inflation isn’t quite where it needs to be, it has still cooled dramatically over the last year. There's no easy solution to balancing inflation and economic growth, and the Fed is right to keep its options open.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that the Federal Funds Rate will be raised before December 14, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.