Pro-establishment narrative

Not only should tech companies be reviewing AI-generated images and videos, but governments around the globe should enact laws to prevent this insidious content from polarizing society even more. Until that happens, however, everyone must learn to carefully analyze any content they see online before sharing it widely over the internet.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Meta isn't calling for an outright ban on deepfake images, requiring disclaimers is a slippery slope that could lead to forced labels on other content, such as satire. Twisting on what people say and doctoring images to fit a narrative is a decades-long issue; just because AI exists doesn't mean we should lose our right to use it as a function of protected speech.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that concern about artificial intelligence will go mainstream in the US by September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Ron DeSantis is far behind Donald Trump in the polls, currently dueling it out with Nikki Haley for the second-place position. His funding is not exactly in the best of health, despite a strong cash haul since launching his presidential campaign in May. As there's a lot of frustration with the DeSantis campaign, it's astute for Bigelow to be shifting loyalties and looking for an alternative for the public good.

Anti-Trump narrative

While some donors may have grown wary of the DeSantis campaign, it doesn't mean his presidential dreams are doomed. Prominent Republican donors, including Canary CEO Dan Eberhart and Point Bridge Capital CEO Hal Lambert, believe his 2024 bid is on track. The amount of funding raised by DeSantis' campaign so far is indicative of a sense of renewal among his supporters.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that, on Jan. 1, 2024, prediction markets will say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The president has lied to the American people about his family's business dealings, and Republicans have proof. It’s important to hear under oath from his family and business partners to get a full picture of how Biden used his political office for financial gains.

Democratic narrative

Republicans have obtained more than 10K pages of financial records and conducted numerous interviews, but they haven’t tied the president to any of his son’s business dealings or found anything the president did wrong. These subpoenas are just a political stunt to try to make it look like something nefarious went on.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Biden will be impeached by the House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

After Hamas' heinous attack on Israel, the country has a right and a duty to carry out this invasion of Gaza. However, a short, temporary cease-fire may be possible on the condition that it comes with the release of Israeli hostages.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Living under a total blockade and unrelenting Israeli air strikes, figures show that one Palestinian child is dying every 15 minutes. A humanitarian cease-fire needs to be established immediately so that much-needed aid can enter the territory.

Narrative C

Currently, the terms "cease-fire" and "humanitarian pause" are being used interchangeably, yet they have major distinctions. While many Israel advocates suggest a "cease-fire" would draw out the conflict, ultimately leading to more bloodshed, many Palestinian advocates argue that mere "pauses" are not enough to abate the humanitarian catastrophe. It's vital for all parties and the international community to clearly define the scope of these terms immediately and minimize the fog of war to the extent possible.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline and medicine in Gaza by December 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

Having previously met in July, further talks between He and Yellen highlight an attempt to restabilize US-China relations. While a great deal will need to be done to clear the air, with questions remaining over Taiwan while trade spats look set to continue despite the US' dependency on Chinese products. China has consistently stressed to the US that the two are on the same side, and any further confrontation will only jeopardize the future of both countries.

Anti-China narrative

This meeting takes place at a time when China is struggling economically, affected by the failed appearance of a hoped post-pandemic boom and a real estate crisis. While China claims that the US continues to attempt to stifle Beijing's economic growth, the US has maintained that its focus is on national security. With the dollar value of total trade in goods reaching a near-record level in recent years, the US sits in a good position for economic talks with China.

Nerd narrative

There is a 17% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While cloud seeding may solve the toxic air problem temporarily, there are long-term impacts to think about. The use of chemicals needed to produce rain has the potential to contaminate food and water sources, which could sicken humans and animals. Additionally, while creating rain in one area, there is the potential to create droughts in others. This human-induced weather technique should undergo serious scrutiny before being used.

Narrative B

Cloud seeding has a growing body of evidence for producing beneficial results. From triggering beneficial rains to bolstering healthy snowpack, the benefits outweigh the costs in many parts of the world. As technology advances, monitoring processes will also improve with benefits for locations like Delhi and beyond.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that a geoengineering act of Congress will become US federal law by the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The debate showed why DeSantis and Haley are ahead of the pack, consolidating current polling in the race to be the Republican no.2 candidate. At many points, the debate seemed as if it was a head-to-head between the two — with Christie and Scott noticeably lacking in force. There's little point in there being anyone else outside of DeSantis and Haley in the next debate if Trump once again chooses to be absent.

Democratic narrative

Each Republican candidate seemed drastically out of touch with modern-day America. The GOP continues to push rhetoric on what they are against rather than what they are for — a product of dangerous desperation from a group of weak candidates who will continue to be crushed by Donald Trump in the polls while dragging the GOP further down a path of oblivion.

Pro-Trump narrative

The GOP field isn't trying to win the Republican nomination, but rather, the candidates are attempting to undermine Pres. Trump's campaign. However, as poll numbers continue to show, such attempts will continue to fail — even in DeSantis' home turf of Florida. Haley and DeSantis continue to fight to be the best loser in the party as Trump cruises toward the 2024 presidential election.

Nerd narrative

There's a 90% chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Austria and Turkey have actually been strengthening diplomatic ties, as shown by Austrian Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer's visit to Ankara last month — the first state visit from a chancellor in 22 years. If Turkey's main accession opponent was willing to do this, imagine what its view on EU membership could be a year from now. Not only would Turkey's EU membership help grow European economic prosperity, but Austria could use this moment to become a historic diplomatic leader on the global stage.

Narrative B

Turkey simply has too many red flags to consider incorporating it into the EU. It refuses to recognize Cyprus as part of Greece, it's located far from Europe and amongst countries with regional instability, and its economy is riddled with low wages and high inflation. The EU has a duty to protect its economic, geographical, and security interests. That said, there's no reason why diplomatic ties between Ankara and the EU can't deepen outside of the accession process and strong relations can be built outside of this framework.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Turkey will be a member of the European Union by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While international fatigue may be setting in as Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion drags on, Germany is standing firm in its support of NATO and Ukraine. Russia is trying to wear down Ukraine and the West, but Putin will not be able to outlast the fervent support of the alliance.

Establishment-critical narrative

NATO and the US ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward and then pretended this played no role in the current conflict. NATO countries have also been sending billions of dollars over the last two years to fight a proxy war on Russia’s doorstep, yet alliance leaders call Russia’s actions “destabilizing.” It is clear who the aggressor is in this situation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that there will be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, other than the US, by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It's about time the actors got back to work. Actors have adequate pay and leave time already. Instead of railing against AI, the union and its members should be figuring out ways to utilize the technology to their advantage because AI is here to stay. This strike was disruptive, and unnecessary, and tried to buck the trends of the future.

Narrative B

It was important not just for the livelihood of current actors, but future actors, to get a deal done with protections from the studios replacing people with AI. If studios are allowed to own an actor's image or voice in perpetuity, not only could it cost jobs but it could lead to actors showing up in projects without their approval. The strike was worthwhile and the labor gains were historic.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that an algorithm will be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video after December 2025, according to the Metaculus community prediction.