Narrative A

Europe's consumers are going through one of the worst cost-of-living crises in decades. Many governments, particularly the French, have made it a priority to try to lower food prices and have called for an early end to the yearly negotiations between retailers and suppliers. As a result, Carrefour's decision to de-list PepsiCo brands from its store because of its unacceptable price increases sends a strong signal to other manufacturers not to pass on unnecessary price hikes to consumers.

Narrative B

Carrefour's decision to discontinue carrying PepsiCo goods is a daring one. French retailers are still negotiating with the food industry, so the action may be just an aggressive tactic to get PepsiCo to give in to its demands. However, there's also a chance the strategy won't work if customers switch to a competing store because Carrefour doesn't stock their preferred PepsiCo brand.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the first fully automated McDonald's will open in the United States by Jan. 3, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

India's robust naval power is, once again, on display in the Indian Ocean region. Its substantial presence has played a key role in keeping the lanes in one of the world's most important maritime trade routes open and largely safe. India must develop its naval capability further to augment its significant geostrategic location on the world map.

Narrative B

The Indian navy's biggest challenge is its slow expansion. It has to account for conventional threats like a rising China as well as asymmetric ones like pirates and the Houthi rebels. India's naval forces may not have the resilience to handle this combination of hazards. New Delhi's desired rise as a maritime power can't happen unless rapid and massive investment and adjustments are made.

Nerd narrative

There is a 4% chance that the US will offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-North Korea narrative

South Korea's dangerous behavior will only end in pain for the American proxy state if it continues on its current reckless trajectory. Pyongyang rejects the oppressive regimes of the US, Japan, Seoul, and all others who desperately seek to raise tensions. Unless there is a clear change in direction, these aggressors will see consequences in the new year.

Anti-North Korea Narrative

While North Korea wishes to flex its military potential and threaten war with bombastic rhetoric, it's best not for Pyongyang to push this too far. Its current rate of military drills will be near-impossible to sustain, and the North is well known to suffer extreme economic hardship. Dangerous propaganda and military activity are merely a mask for a fragile and vulnerable nation.

Nerd narrative

There is a 14% chance of a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Due to US sanctions and export controls, and because of Russia's isolation on the world stage, the Kremlin is increasingly having to rely on like-minded, despotic regimes to continue waging its illegal war in Ukraine. These developments are just the latest in the trend.

Pro-Russia narrative

While the US continues to pump Ukraine with weapons and continues the bloodshed, it wants to criticize Russia for having longstanding partnerships with its neighbors, including North Korea. These relationships are in full compliance with international law.

Nerd narrative

There's a 14% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

For years now, the world has known about both the dangers of long COVID and the potential benefits of the vaccine for combatting it. More recently, the British Medical Association published a study showing one pre-infection dose of an original vaccine can reduce the risk of long COVID by 21%, two doses by 59%, and three or more doses by 73%. If you want to protect yourself against this debilitating disease, getting vaccinated is the solution.

Establishment-critical narrative

When dealing with complex phenomena like this, no professional should make absolute claims. Everyone, especially doctors, should acknowledge that other studies have found vaccinations to be one of the primary predictors of long COVID. If blanket prescriptions for all of society are made without analyzing opposing data, there should be no surprise when there's public backlash to vaccine injuries.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that COVID will be eradicated by June 2092, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Given our cumulative exposure to plastic pollution, it's essential that the Food and Drug Administration and similar agencies worldwide reassess the risks of plasticizers and bisphenols. As plastic waste proliferates farmland and infiltrates the food we eat, a ban on potentially dangerous plastic chemicals in food packaging and processing would help mitigate the effects of exposure to plastic chemicals on humans.

Narrative B

With plastic ubiquitous in food packaging and processing, it's difficult to avoid the chemicals altogether. Plastic packaging is critical in ensuring food safety and product quality and reducing food loss and waste. As there's no alternative to plastics, the best regulators could do is ask food manufacturers to follow existing regulatory requirements and require rigorous testing for chemicals in packaging.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US' strong labor data is the cherry on top of a strong week for the American economy. While downward revisions for October and November must be acknowledged and conceded, expectations and forecasts have been exceeded across the board. The labor market remains defiant to pessimism, and will likely be a frequently used signpost of US economic strength as the 2024 election year ramps up.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the federal government is adamant that the US labor market is in good shape, the reality remains that there is a 3M gap between open jobs and available workers to fill them. America is silently experiencing economic turmoil by increasing labor challenges within a tight market. With net international migration at its lowest in decades, there's no current solution to a growing labor shortage — a problem facing a post-industrial, service-sector American economy that gets far too little attention.

Nerd narrative

There is a 40% chance that the US unemployment rate will reach 10% before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Despite Trump's complaints about 2020 and his subsequent indictments, the former president has — even within Democrat-appointed courts — been treated fairly. In his classified documents case in Florida, under the oversight of one of his own appointees, Trump has even benefitted from a seemingly purposeful slow-walking of the legal process to ensure his trial doesn't finish before the election. All in all, the only reason Trump supporters may feel distressed about 2024 is due solely to his accelerating, polarizing, and authoritarian rhetoric.

Republican narrative

Whatever happened in 2020 is over, so now Republicans, as Democrats successfully did in 2020, need to build an impenetrable get-out-the-vote campaign long before the November election. The GOP has already built a website to show voters when, where, and how to apply for and submit absentee ballots. Thanks to the Democrats, America no longer has an election day but rather a long and toxic election season. Like it or not, the key to winning the White House and Congress is now playing by the left's unfair new rules and showing the true popularity of populist conservative policies.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the next US presidential election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus Prediction community.

Narrative A

San Francisco has done the right thing. While critics may complain about the cost of the project, there's no price tag on human life. The Golden Gate Bridge has tragically seen nearly 2K people take their lives, and this project was necessary to give people a chance to reconsider suicide and choose to continue living.

Narrative B

In typical California fashion, a public project comes years too late, millions of dollars over budget, and not fully complete. While the project is well-intentioned, it's merely a Band-Aid that many psychiatrists doubt will even stop suicides. Of course, a physical net will prevent people from jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge, but it doesn’t do anything to meaningfully help individuals and stop them from committing suicide elsewhere.

Republican narrative

Hunter Biden believes that he can continue to use his family name to avoid personal responsibility, but House Republicans are holding him accountable for defying two legitimate congressional subpoenas. There's ample evidence that Hunter and his father made a fortune selling political influence, and the Bidens must be willing to answer to the American people.

Democratic narrative

Republicans have spent years peddling baseless conspiracy theories about Pres. Joe Biden and his son, yet they have no evidence to show the public. Instead, they are resorting to political games with a sham impeachment inquiry and issuing bad-faith subpoenas. If the GOP actually cared about discovering the Bidens' so-called corruption, they would not have rejected Hunter Biden’s offer to testify publicly.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.