Biden Won't Be Charged in Top Secret Documents Case
Due to his mishandling of sensitive documents, the actions of US Pres. Joe Biden after his US vice presidency ended posed a serious risk to national security, a federal probe has found. The investigation stated that, because of Biden's cooperation, besides the difficulties in charging him, criminal prosecution would be challenging.
US Dept. of Justice special counsel Robert Hur's report suggested that it "would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him — by then a former president well into his eighties — of a serious felony."
Hur further stated that any further prosecution may not be possible since the 81-year-old will only be seen as "a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory."
Republican narrative
If anyone harbored doubts about Biden's age-related inabilities, the special counsel's report — and the president's bumbling response to it — should clear them all. Each time the Democratic party tries to deny it, Biden himself blows the lid open on his worst-kept secret. In any case, his age-related challenges are a "secret" only to him and his party, which somehow still expects the nation to give him four more years at the helm.
Democratic narrative
A political hatchet job was executed to perfection by a special counsel whose Beltway Republican credentials are well-known. Robert Hur has handed Donald Trump an easy line of attack against Biden in the run-up to the 2024 election. And it couldn't have been more below the belt than pulling the president's late son into the narrative of "If too senile to be prosecuted, then too senile to be president."
Nerd narrative
There is a 9% chance that Joe Biden will no longer be US president by Jan. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.
White House Reacts to Dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief
The White House on Thursday reacted to news that Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Valerii Zaluzhnyi from his post as commander-in-chief, opting to appoint Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Responding to questions from reporters at a White House briefing, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Zelenskyy "gets to decide" the military leadership of his country.
"That's what civilian control is all about," Kirby said. "We know that, and we'll work with whoever he has in charge of his military. We'll continue to work with our Ukrainian counterparts."
Pro-establishment narrative
Zelenskyy is the sovereign leader of Ukraine. While the US appreciates him keeping Washington informed of his decisions, it was purely his to make and the US will continue to work closely with whomever he decides to have in his top leadership.
Establishment-critical narrative
While the White House says this was solely Zelenskyy's decision to make, it nonetheless highlights the influence and power of the US on Ukrainian decisions. It's unimaginable that a leader of another country would have done the same.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2035, according to the Metaculus community prediction.
Trump Achieves Overwhelming Victory in Nevada Caucus
Former Pres. Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the Nevada Republican Caucus on Thursday, receiving more than 99% of votes cast. Trump only faced an unknown candidate (Ryan Binkley) on the ballot.
Trump will win all 26 delegates from Nevada. With victories in Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire, Trump is gaining momentum to receive the Republican nomination for the presidential election.
The only remaining candidate for the nomination, Nikki Haley, opted out of the caucus — claiming that Nevada Republican Party officials had rigged the process to Trump's advantage. Instead, she took part in the state's primary election on Tuesday.
Pro-Trump narrative
Donald Trump cruised to an expected landslide in the Nevada Caucus, a race that Nikki Haley was too scared to compete in. Trump's overwhelming support among Republican voters is palpable even when he's not listed on the ballot as Nikki Haley lost to literally nobody. The GOP primary season is effectively over, and everyone is eager to see President Trump take on Joe Biden and return to the White House.
Conservative narrative
No matter the outcome of these primaries, Nikki Haley is strengthening the GOP. She is standing for true conservative values and exudes a youthful competence that's adding needed dialogue in the Republican Party. With Trump's other opposition in the GOP field gone, Haley now stands as an important voice in the party's future.
Democratic narrative
All things considered, it makes no difference whatsoever how Donald Trump wins the Nevada GOP caucus. Nevada will never go to Trump in a presidential election. Trump has already lost Nevada twice, in 2016 and 2020, and in November, he will be a three-time loser in that state.
Nerd narrative
There is a 97% chance Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according the Metaculus prediction community.
Brazil: Dengue Outbreak Prompts Public Health Emergency
The Brazilian municipality of Rio de Janeiro has declared a public health emergency due to an outbreak of dengue fever and announced special measures to contain the illness, just as tourists and revelers flock to the city for Carnival celebrations, which kicks off Friday evening.
As of Thursday, confirmed cases in Rio surpassed 14.9K this year alone, compared to roughly 22.9K cases throughout all of 2023, with hospitalizations in January reaching 362 — the highest record since 1974 — and one fatality reported.
The states of Acre, Goiás, and Minas Gerais, as well as the Federal District, have also declared public health emergencies amid a surge in dengue cases nationwide. Brazil's Health Ministry has reported nearly 400K probable cases so far in 2024, with 54 confirmed deaths.
Narrative A
While several factors, such as population growth, do facilitate the spread of this mosquito-borne disease, climate change is the main driver of the worldwide spike in dengue cases. As humidity, rainfall, and temperatures have increased, mosquitoes are growing and incubating the virus faster.
Narrative B
While allegations that climate change and new weather patterns are to blame for mounting outbreaks of dengue fever offer a simple explanation that's comfortable both for those in power and ordinary citizens, this disease could have long been eradicated. It takes only some proactive, preventive measures to address this issue once and for all.
Tucker Carlson Releases Putin Interview
American political commentator Tucker Carlson on Thursday released a 127-minute interview from Moscow with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin.
Putin began with a roughly 25-minute speech on the history of Russia and Ukraine. He claimed Kyiv had been one of two original "centers of power" of Russia in the eighth century while alleging that the term "Ukrainian" didn't refer to "any particular ethnic group" but rather someone "living on the outskirts" of Polish-Lithuanian territory partly reclaimed by Russia in the 17th century.
Putin continued that "Soviet Ukraine" had been established in 1922 by the USSR, and described the country as an "artificial state" that had been "given a great deal of territory that had never belonged to it." Putin accused the West of ignoring the post-Soviet agreements against NATO expansion, arguing it hadn't been "welcomed into the brotherly family of 'civilized nations.'"
Narrative A
By choosing to interview Putin, Carlson exhibited a journalistic value regularly lost to the mainstream editorial elite a dedication and duty to platform all individuals for the benefit of readers and watchers worldwide, regardless of bias and ideology. Tucker's interview was historic and will provide the public with a greater foundation to be informed from all perspectives concerning an event of global importance.
Narrative B
Tucker Carlson's time with the Russian president shouldn't be considered journalism but rather an embarrassing publicity stunt promoting dishonesty and unjustified flattery at the expense of truth and the protection of democracy. Carlson rejected the opportunity to ask tough questions to one of the world's most violent dictators, instead prioritizing sensationalism for personal profit.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to be president of Russia by October 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Climate Scientist Wins Defamation Suit
Two writers, the National Review columnist Mark Steyn and former member of the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) Rand Simberg, have been ordered to pay compensatory and punitive damages to climate scientist Michael Mann after they were convicted of defaming him.
Steyn and Simberg were ordered to pay $1 in compensatory damages, with Steyn also hit with $1M in punitive damages and Simberg $1K. Mann argued the two writers harmed his reputation by comparing an alleged research scandal to a sex abuse case involving Penn State football.
Simberg wrote that Mann could be "the Jerry Sandusky of climate science." Steyn later referenced Simberg's article, writing that Mann "was the man behind the fraudulent climate-change 'hockeystick' graph," calling him the "ringmaster of the tree-ring circus."
Left narrative
Instead of congratulating, or at the very least accepting the iconic climate science discoveries of Michael Mann, Steyn and Simberg wrote inflammatory and defaming propaganda. Their columns and blog posts were clearly aimed at harming the reputation of a man whose work didn't align with their politics — but thankfully, the court brought these malicious efforts to light and rightly punished them.
Right narrative
Mann's controversial methods for creating the "hockey stick" graph were critiqued by many people at the time this case began — and in response, Mann himself used character assassination tactics to go after them. As for Simberg, what he did was simply wonder whether Penn State was covering for Mann the same way they did for their football coach. Mann is not infallible and deserves to be questioned.
Narrative C
Whatever side you're on, the defamation aspect of this case is over. The question that will be litigated next is whether the punitive damages were excessive. Supreme Court precedent shows that million-dollar punitive damages alongside thousand-dollar compensatory damages — a 1,1 ratio — do not meet the constitutional "due process" threshold.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that there will be a year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1880 baseline before 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Malaysia’s Top Court Rules Some Islamic Laws in Kelantan Unconstitutional
Malaysia's top court ruled Friday that more than a dozen Islamic rules put in place by the state of Kelantan are unconstitutional.
An 8-1 majority of the federal court's nine-member bench ruled 16 laws within Kelantan's Sharia criminal code "void and invalid." The nullified laws include provisions criminalizing sodomy, incest, gambling, sexual harassment, and defiling places of worship.
This case was filed by two women in 2022 after the majority-Muslim state enacted a new set of laws relating to Islamic offenses. The women argued against the constitutionality of 18 state laws, claiming they were already covered by parliament and beyond the jurisdiction of the state assembly.
Narrative A
This is a sad day for Islam in Malaysia. By challenging the power of Sharia laws in Kelantan, the federal courts have put into question the powers of Islamic laws across the country. Malaysia is an Islamic country and should be governed by Islamic laws.
Narrative B
This ruling isn't an attack against Islam but an affirmation of the Malaysian constitution as the dominant law of the country. The powers of individual states are limited for a reason, and federal authority should be upheld. This ruling doesn't change the validity of the Sharia courts nor the existence of Islam as Malaysia's official religion.
Former Maryland Gov. Hogan Running for US Senate
Republican former governor of Maryland Larry Hogan on Friday announced via X, formerly Twitter, that he will run for one of the state's US Senate seats.
In his announcement, Hogan said he is running "not to serve one party — but to stand up to both parties, fight for Maryland, and fix our nation's broken politics."
A frequent critic of former Pres. Donald Trump during his term in office, Hogan was once seen as a potential challenger to Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Now Hogan will run for the Senate seat that's opening because of the retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.
Republican narrative
Hogan was a popular governor and his brand of bipartisanship obviously appealed to Maryland voters through two election cycles. Republicans should be celebrating the fact that Hogan might help them return to the Senate majority, and at the very least, Republicans will be putting up a fight for this seat.
Democratic narrative
Hogan might be popular, and he might be a moderate, but at the end of the day, he still holds views on several issues, including abortion access, that put him on the opposite side from most Democratic voters. This race might be competitive, but Democrats are still in the driver's seat in Maryland.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Netanyahu: Rafah Will Be Evacuated Before Offensive
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday that Israel will evacuate displaced Palestinians from Rafah, who represent more than half the population of the Gaza Strip, before Israeli forces move into the city.
Netanyahu, who earlier this week called a Hamas counteroffer on a hostage deal "delusional," claimed that the group still has four battalions in Rafah and Israel must eliminate them to achieve its war goals, adding that any operation would require evacuating civilians.
These comments come one day after US Pres. Joe Biden said Israel's military response in Gaza has been "over the top" and that his administration was pushing "very hard" for a deal between Israel and Hamas.
Pro-establishment narrative
Israel's war against Hamas is just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack. However, Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between Israel's military machine and Hamas' terrorist fighters. Israel has not yet created acceptable conditions to move into Rafah, and it must have a concrete plan to evacuate civilians from any areas in which it will operate.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas once and for all to ensure Israel's security. To eliminate its capacity for terror, Israel has been forced to use blunt tools to rout Hamas forces, as they are so deeply dug into Gaza's civil infrastructure. Israel has worked hard to compromise and ensure the safety of civilians, but it will have to go into Rafah if an agreement is not reached soon.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is already far beyond catastrophic, as over 1M Palestinians barely survive in dense and muddy tent camps while battling famine and disease. If Israel were to push into Rafah as it did Gaza City and Khan Younis, the consequences would be absolutely dire.
Nerd narrative
There's a 56% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Imran Khan Allies Take Lead in Pakistani Election
Voters cast their ballots in Pakistan's contentious election on Thursday. In a surprising turn of events, independent candidates aligned with imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan took the lead despite not being able to run as members of Khan's PTI party.
The final results are still inconclusive. The incumbent PML-N party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif was the overwhelming favorite to win the parliamentary elections, and long reporting delays sparked accusations of fraud.
Counting has almost finished for 265 available seats, and independent candidates — most of whom are affiliated with the PTI — have won 97 seats, more than any other party. Nawaz’s PML-N won 66 seats while the Pakistan People’s Party won 51 seats.
Narrative A
Despite all of the lies, deceit, and abuse of power, the PTI has the overwhelming mandate of the Pakistani people. Imran Khan has had the full weight of the Pakistani political and military regime aligned against him, yet his ideas cannot be stopped. Unfortunately, the powers that be are still working behind the scenes to undermine democracy and manipulate as many votes as they can. Pakistanis and proponents of democracy around the world cannot stand idly by as Nawaz Sharif and his allies attempt a coup. The PTI won this election, and it will deliver for its supporters.
Narrative B
The Pakistan election still has no clear winners, but it appears that PML-N has secured the most votes. Pakistan has conducted a free and fair election where the will of the people is heard and honored. Unfortunately, violent extremists have perpetrated political violence that has delayed election results, but this election will be sorted out shortly. A coalition government will soon form to begin serving the Pakistani people.
Nerd narrative
There is a 47% chance that Pakistan will experience a successful coup d’etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.