Gangs in Haiti Try to Seize Port-au-Prince Airport
Gunfire has been heard close to Haiti's main airport, Toussaint Louverture International, in Port-au-Prince, as security forces clashed with armed gangs that sought to take over the facility to prevent the return of Prime Minister Ariel Henry.
According to a local law enforcement source, several dozen gunmen broke through the outer walls of the airport on Monday but were pushed back before entering its main buildings.
Pro-establishment narrative
Armed bandits have orchestrated acts of violence and terror to cause chaos and panic in Haiti. Ruthless gangs control 80% of Port-au-Prince and are fighting to seize the rest to delay forming inclusive governance and restoring democracy in the country. The mass prison break and upsurge in violence underlines the need for the UN to deploy a multinational security force to bring peace to Haiti and eliminate the gang problem.
Establishment-critical narrative
Deploying a multinational security force in Haiti would legitimize the unelected leaders of Port-au-Prince. Prime Minister Henry must immediately step down to allow a fresh, credible transitional government to emerge and create the conditions for free and fair elections. Until leaders unaffiliated with gangs form a functional government in Haiti, hope and stability will continue to elude an impoverished nation.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance Ariel Henry will cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Super Tuesday: Biden, Trump Solidify Path to November
Pres. Joe Biden and Donald Trump gained momentum in their respective Democratic and Republican primaries across 16 states and one US Territory on "Super Tuesday," further cementing the likelihood of a 2020 rematch in November.
On the biggest day of the nomination races, GOP contender Nikki Haley scored a lone victory in the Vermont primary, while entrepreneur Jason Palmer beat Biden in American Samoa. In a major announcement, Haley suspended her presidential campaign following the contests.
Democratic narrative
Super Tuesday unsurprisingly showed Pres. Joe Biden and former Pres. Donald Trump as their respective parties' favorites. Very concerning is the GOP's clear and continued deterioration into far-right extremism. However, Trump underperformed in some areas, and Biden has major strengths that will come into play when democracy is on the line in November.
Pro-Trump narrative
Super Tuesday inflicted a historic knockout blow to Nikki Haley from former President Trump. Haley must call on her supporters to unify behind Trump, making his momentum in a showdown with Biden even stronger. Voters are clearly concerned over crime and immigration — they spoke loudly on Super Tuesday and Biden should be concerned about his weak position as election season comes into focus.
Nerd narrative
There's a 54% chance that Trump will win if the 2024 US presidential election is Trump vs. Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: Five SAS Soldiers Under Investigation Over Alleged War Crimes in Syria
Five serving members of the Special Air Service, an elite unit belonging to UK Special Forces, are under investigation for alleged war crimes committed in Syria years ago.
While their identities haven't been revealed — and are likely to remain secret if authorities decide to proceed with a court martial — the service police have recommended the Service Prosecuting Authority pursue murder charges, the military equivalent of the Crown Prosecution Service.
Pro-establishment narrative
The British defense ministry holds all personnel to the highest standards, and takes all allegations of wrongdoing extremely seriously. If an investigation finds evidence of criminal wrongdoing, the case will be presented to the relevant prosecuting authority, and justice will be served.
Establishment-critical narrative
After serious wrongdoing by SAS soldiers was revealed in Afghanistan, new management decided to prosecute a comparatively low-level infraction to show they were taking action. Responses to these extremely serious allegations have amounted to nothing more than a case of reputation management.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Syria will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by February 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
FBI Searches for Iranian Accused of Plotting to Murder Mike Pompeo
In an escalation of its manhunt, the FBI field office in Miami on Friday issued a most wanted notice for suspected Iranian intelligence officer Majid Dastjani Farahani, who's accused of planning to kill former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other US officials.
The bureau accuses Farahani — who reportedly speaks Spanish and frequently travels to Venezuela — of acting or purporting to act "for or on behalf of" Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security to draft non-Iranians for surveillance activities in the US.
Republican narrative
As Iran continually threatens former US officials who served at great personal sacrifice, it gets more disturbing that the White House has abused the classification system to hide information about such plans from the press and policymakers. The White House values potential deals with Tehran over punishing it for dangerous plots.
Democratic narrative
Trump officials on Iran's hit list have been well-protected since this issue arose. In fact, the Biden administration has allocated millions of dollars annually to counter threats from Iran and ensure these officials' safety — as well as that of Iranian dissidents and journalists living in America. This is a well-coordinated national security operation from the White House.
Nerd narrative
There's a 13% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ukraine's First Lady Declines Invitation to State of the Union Address
Ukrainian first Lady Olena Zelenska has declined an invitation from the White House to attend this year's State of the Union address.
"Due to events added to the schedule earlier, including a visit to Kyiv by orphans, unfortunately, the first lady will not be able to attend," a statement from the Ukrainian president's office said.
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite underlying suggestions in the Washington Post's reporting, first lady Olena Zelenska will not be attending the State of the Union address because of scheduling conflicts, including a pre-planned visit to an orphanage in Kyiv. Solidarity and diplomacy between Ukraine and America is as strong as ever.
Establishment-critical narrative
Sources with knowledge of the planning said the declined invitation came because Zelenska didn't want to be seated near Yulia Navalnaya. Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy also didn't want to appear too close to US Pres. Biden at a time when he's dependant on Republicans to approve further aid. This awkward public mishap underlines ongoing pressures in the relationship between Ukraine and the US.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be re-elected president in the next Ukrainian elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: National Insurance Cuts Announced Within 2024 Budget
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has announced a two pence (p) reduction in employee National Insurance as of April 6, from 10% to 8% of annual income, as part of the UK Government's 2024 Spring Budget.
The High Income Child Benefit Charge threshold will be raised from £50K (US$64K) to £60K ($76K), and repayment halved until an individual earns £80K ($102K) or more. Fuel duty's temporary 5p cut is extended by 12 months and the Energy Profits Levy is extended to March 2029.
Pro-establishment narrative
While Jeremy Hunt's budget lacked surprises and promises of an economic revolution given current financial circumstances, the Chancellor's message was certainly clear. The UK, despite all the ups and downs, is back in safe hands — slowly but surely rebounding from years of turbulence. Hunt remains a staple of professionalism and trust within the Conservative Party.
Establishment-critical narrative
Hunt's budget can only be viewed as devoid of reality and deeply out of touch. While children remain hungry and public services continue to be desperately underfunded, the Chancellor instead attempted to portray light-touch changes in taxation as the solution to a cost of living crisis. The budget merely reaffirmed what's already well known — the Tories are on their last legs, and it is time for a change in government.
Nerd narrative
There is a 94% chance that the Labour Party will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan High Court: Ex-Prime Minister Was Denied Fair Trial
The Pakistani Supreme Court has ruled that the court case against former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1979, which led to his conviction and subsequent hanging, was not a fair trial.
The trial of Bhutto — who founded the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which is now run by his grandson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari — was brought against him by the then-military government run by General Zia-ul-Haq.
Pro-establishment narrative
While the life of Bhutto was tragic, he was likely not the martyr his ardent supporters have made him out to be. While the military was certainly what brought him down, he was once a member of the military-run political class due to his hunger for power. He also played a role in the destruction of Bangladesh and the deaths of 1M Bengalis — proof that he was not a saint with only good intentions.
Establishment-critical narrative
The fact that it took Pakistan's justice system 44 years to admit its wrongdoing should be a tell-all. Bhutto's hanging was nothing other than a political assassination called for by the then-president and sanctioned by the corrupt courts. This long overdue apology also means little given that the same regime is still targeting civilians and politicians who go against its orthodoxy, especially the currently imprisoned Imran Khan.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance of civil war in Pakistan before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Haley Drops Out of GOP Primary
Following her losses to former US Pres. Donald Trump during the Super Tuesday primary elections, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced Wednesday she's suspending her campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
In a speech in Charleston, S.C., Haley — who lost all but two of the state primaries as of Tuesday — said she "will no longer be a candidate" but "will not stop" speaking up for the things she believes in. She also declined to immediately endorse Trump.
Anti-Trump narrative
Even with Haley out of the way, it's going to be difficult for Trump to get the 90% of Republican voters he's projected to need to win the general election. Many Haley voters didn't express ill will toward Biden, and they could sway the vote by staying home or supporting the president. Trump has his work cut out for him reuniting the party.
Pro-Trump narrative
Haley stuck around so long because her corporate backers wanted her to put a dent in Trump's effort to return to the White House. But the American people saw through her and knew she was more of a turncoat than a viable alternative. Now the former president has a clear path back to the Oval Office.
Democratic narrative
Republicans have made a big mistake. Biden has his flaws, but he beat Trump once and can beat him again. This time around, Biden can take a page from Haley's book in an effort to keep the never-Trump vote from turning to MAGA. For Biden to retain the White House, it'll be important for him to keep up Haley's message that Trump is a dangerous person who could put an end to American democracy.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 53% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Arizona Senator Sinema Won't Seek Reelection
Centrist Arizona US Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — who left the Democratic Party to become an independent in 2022 — Tuesday announced she would not seek reelection, citing how she feels her middle-ground approach to politics isn't "what America wants right now."
Sinema caucused with Democrats after switching her affiliation, helping pass much of Pres. Joe Biden's agenda and supporting his judicial nominees. But she also stood against several Democratic policies, including raising taxes on corporations and weakening the filibuster.
Republican narrative
Sinema has decided to leave the Senate because the Democratic Party has veered too far left, and even as an independent she would have had a difficult time fundraising and garnering votes in a three-way race. With Gallego carrying Biden's failed policies like an albatross, the door is now wide open for Lake to bring Republican sanity — and possibly a Republican majority — to the Senate.
Democratic narrative
Sinema may claim she's been forced to resign by extremism, but she's actually lost popularity because her brand of bipartisanship creates bad policy. Perhaps her lasting legacy will be paving the way for a rock-solid Democrat in Gallego to take the baton from her and carry it into the Senate to preserve Democrats' majority and fight for progressive policies.
Nerd narrative
There's a 75% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Formerly Extinct Whale in the Atlantic Seen Near New England
During an aerial survey last Friday about 30 miles (48 km) off the coast of Nantucket, Mass., researchers from the New England Aquarium spotted a gray whale — a species that was hunted to extinction in the Atlantic Ocean in the 1700s.
Gray whales are typically found in the North Pacific. However, there have been five sightings of the species in the Atlantic over the past 15 years, including one off the coast of Florida last year — reportedly the same one found off Nantucket.
Narrative A
Finding this whale on the wrong coast is a bad sign of climate change's effects. In addition to the unnatural passage through the Arctic, melting also decreases the gray whales' food supply. At this rate, even more whales will be found washed up on both coasts and their population will continue its rapid descent. This is a canary in the climate coal mine.
Narrative B
Climate change is having a negative impact on the whales, but so are offshore wind farms, which are being pitched by the wind energy industry as a flawed cure for the Earth's warming. But the high-decibel sonar and pile-driving turbines of wind farms could be killing the very animals they claim to be saving. Climate alarmism can harm whales too.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species will be born or hatched naturally by March 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.