25 July 2025

Daily Newsletter

Macron: France to Recognize Palestinian State in September

The Facts

  • French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Thursday that France will formally recognize the State of Palestine at the U.N. General Assembly in September, marking the first time a G7 nation has done so.

  • In a post on X, Macron shared a letter sent to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, stating that the decision reflects France's "historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East."

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the decision, claiming it "rewards terror" and risks creating "another Iranian proxy" that could become "a launch pad to annihilate Israel."


The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

France's recognition of Palestine is a long-overdue affirmation of dignity and self-determination for a people trapped in stateless suffering. It signals moral courage amid global paralysis and asserts that peace demands justice — not endless war. It restores hope and demands accountability, challenging the notion that recognition must await the approval of those who benefit from its denial.

Pro-Israel narrative

France's recognition of a Palestinian state is a reckless and ill-timed concession to extremism. It rewards terror in the wake of Oct. 7, undermines Israel's security, and empowers groups like Hamas, which reject peace altogether. Rather than fostering stability, this move legitimizes violence and jeopardizes any serious path to coexistence — offering symbolism while sacrificing real safety.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

FCC Approves $8B Skydance-Paramount Merger After Settlement

The Facts

  • The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved Paramount Global's $8 billion merger with Skydance Media on Thursday by a 2-1 vote, with Democratic commissioner Anna Gomez dissenting.

  • Skydance committed to eliminating all diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives at the company and appointing an ombudsman at CBS News to monitor for media bias for at least two years.

  • The merger gives Skydance control of CBS broadcast network, Paramount Pictures, Paramount+ streaming service, and cable channels including MTV, Comedy Central and Nickelodeon.


The Spin

Republican narrative

This merger is a necessary change for a struggling media landscape where Americans have lost trust in biased legacy news outlets. Skydance's commitments to eliminate discriminatory DEI programs and ensure fair, fact-based reporting will help restore credibility to CBS News. The $1.5 billion capital injection will strengthen operations and enhance local news coverage that serves the public interest.

Democratic narrative

The FCC approval highlights a dangerous erosion of press freedom through unprecedented government interference in newsroom decisions. Paramount's $16 million settlement with Trump appears to be a payoff to secure regulatory approval, while the cancellation of Colbert's show demonstrates corporate capitulation to political pressure that undermines editorial independence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that the White House will revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

ICC Convicts Central African Republic Rebels Over War Crimes

The Facts

  • International Criminal Court judges on Thursday convicted Patrice-Edouard Ngaïssona and Alfred Yekatom, two leaders of a predominantly Christian rebel group, of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the Central African Republic (CAR) between 2013 and 2014. The two have been sentenced to 12 and 15 years in prison, respectively.

  • The convictions stem from their role in the predominantly Christian Anti-Balaka militia, which reportedly engaged in sectarian violence against Muslim civilians after the Muslim-majority Seleka rebel group seized power in one of the world's poorest countries in March 2013.

  • Yekatom was found guilty of 20 charges, including murder, torture, and attacking civilians, while Ngaïssona, a former CAR football executive, was convicted on 28 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Both men rejected all charges against them.


The Spin

Narrative A

These convictions represent crucial progress in delivering justice for victims of horrific sectarian violence. The ICC demonstrated its commitment to independence and accountability by thoroughly investigating and prosecuting leaders who orchestrated systematic attacks against Muslim civilians. The detailed evidence of torture, murder, and forced displacement shows why international justice mechanisms are essential when national systems fail to act.

Narrative B

The ICC's focus on African leaders and the Global South while ignoring Western war crimes exposes its selective justice and neo-colonial bias. Major powers like the U.S. and European nations escape accountability for devastating interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, while African officials face prosecution. This double standard undermines the court's credibility and reinforces perceptions that it serves Western political interests rather than impartial justice.

See sources

WSJ: Clinton Also Sent Jeffrey Epstein Birthday Letter

The Facts

  • Former U.S. President Bill Clinton was among several who wrote birthday letters to Jeffrey Epstein for his 50th birthday in 2003, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, stating he was the "biggest name in the album [of letters]." The letter reportedly praised Epstein's "childlike curiosity" and "drive to make a difference."

  • The birthday letters were reportedly compiled in a leather-bound album by Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's former girlfriend and business partner, who organized the collection of messages from dozens of Epstein's associates and acquaintances.

  • The journal reported last week that U.S. President Donald Trump had written Epstein a letter that included the outline of a naked woman and the message "Happy Birthday and may every day be another wonderful secret." Trump denied writing it and sued Rupert Murdoch, two Wall Street Journal reporters and Dow Jones for libel and slander.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

These birthday letters reveal the extensive network of powerful individuals who maintained friendly relationships with Epstein years before his crimes became public knowledge. The 2003 correspondence shows how Epstein cultivated connections with presidents, billionaires, and celebrities who genuinely believed they were dealing with a legitimate financier and philanthropist.

Establishment-critical narrative

The timing and content of these letters raise serious questions about what these influential figures knew about Epstein's activities and when they became aware of it. Clinton's praise of Epstein's character and Trump's alleged suggestive message suggest a level of familiarity that goes beyond casual acquaintance.

See sources

UK-Australia Sign 50-Year AUKUS Treaty Amid US Review

The Facts

  • Australia and the U.K. signed a 50-year bilateral treaty to cement the AUKUS submarine partnership during ministerial talks in Sydney, with the agreement expected to be worth up to £20 billion ($27 billion) in British exports over 25 years.

  • The treaty was announced by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles alongside British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey following annual AUKMIN talks on Friday.

  • The United States is not a party to the new bilateral treaty and is currently conducting a review of the AUKUS agreement under the Trump administration to examine whether it aligns with America First policies.


The Spin

Pro-government narrative

This bilateral treaty demonstrates an unwavering commitment to regional security despite American uncertainty. The year agreement ensures continuity in submarine development and creates thousands of jobs while strengthening Indo-Pacific deterrence against growing threats. Britain and Australia are taking decisive action to maintain strategic partnerships regardless of shifting US priorities.

Government-critical narrative

The timing raises concerns about undermining the trilateral nature of AUKUS while the U.S. conducts its legitimate review. America's submarine fleet is already stretched thin, operating 25% below target capacity, making any premature commitments potentially problematic. The bilateral approach could complicate rather than strengthen the broader alliance framework.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by May 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US, Israel Withdraw from Gaza Ceasefire Talks

The Facts

  • U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced Thursday that American negotiators were withdrawing from Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar, accusing Hamas of lacking coordination and not acting in good faith during the mediation process.

  • "We have decided to bring our team home from Doha for consultations after the latest response from Hamas, which clearly shows a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza," Witkoff said in a statement.

  • Earlier, Israel recalled its negotiating team from Doha on Thursday "to shift Hamas's position" after receiving Hamas's undisclosed response to the ceasefire proposal. However, a person with knowledge of the negotiations claimed that Israel "will continue the talks, there is no explosion and no collapse."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Hamas has consistently obstructed peace efforts by making unreasonable demands and refusing to negotiate in good faith. The group's latest response demonstrated an apparent unwillingness to reach a ceasefire, forcing mediators to abandon talks. Hamas broke previous ceasefires and continues prioritizing its militant agenda over Palestinian welfare.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel's blockade and military operations are causing widespread starvation in Gaza, preventing vital supplies from reaching suffering families and obstructing real peace talks. The humanitarian crisis highlights Israel's disregard for Palestinian lives. The ongoing restrictions exacerbate the devastation and hinder meaningful efforts for peace.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has decided to pull back from the Qatar talks, but this doesn't mean that discussions have collapsed. Israel is making it clear to Hamas that there must be a meaningful shift in stance from a posture of "rejectionism" to being more constructive and accounting for Israeli security concerns.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Science Magazine Retracts 15-Year-Old 'Arsenic Life' Study

Photo: Unsplash

The Facts

  • The journal Science on Thursday retracted a 2010 study claiming that bacterium GFAJ-1 from California's Mono Lake could use arsenic instead of phosphorus — an essential mineral for living organisms — to build DNA and proteins.

  • The retraction was based on evidence that the study's key conclusions were supported by flawed data, including contamination issues, rather than research misconduct or fraud by the authors.

  • Ten out of 11 of the living authors on the original paper submitted a response disagreeing with the retraction decision, stating they stand by their data and that disputes about conclusions are normal in science.They did, however, concede the work "could have been written and discussed more carefully."


The Spin

Narrative A

The retraction was long overdue and necessary to correct the scientific record. The study's claims were immediately questioned by experts who pointed out fundamental flaws in methodology and implausible chemistry. Multiple replication attempts failed, and contamination issues undermined the core findings. Keeping flawed research in the literature misleads future scientists and wastes resources.

Narrative B

This retraction sets a dangerous precedent by changing established standards without applying them consistently across all publications. The authors conducted ethical research and addressed criticisms appropriately through normal scientific discourse. Retracting papers based on disputed interpretations rather than misconduct threatens academic freedom and could make any controversial research vulnerable to editorial whims.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that we will find life on Mars by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Signs Order to Remove Homeless From Streets

The Facts

  • U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order titled "Ending Crime and Disorder on America's Streets." It directs the Attorney General to reverse judicial precedents that limit local governments' ability to remove homeless people from streets and encampments.

  • The order redirects federal funding to ensure homeless individuals are transferred to rehabilitation, treatment centers and other facilities, though the White House did not specify how much money would be allocated to the initiative.

  • The executive order prioritizes federal grants for states and municipalities that enforce prohibitions on open illicit drug use, urban camping, loitering and urban squatting, and track the location of sex offenders.


The Spin

Republican narrative

It's time for a necessary shift from failed progressive policies that have allowed homelessness to spiral out of control. An overwhelming majority of homeless individuals struggle with drug addiction, mental health issues or both, yet Democrats have permitted public spaces to deteriorate into unsafe zones. Trump's approach prioritizes public safety by moving people into treatment facilities where they can receive proper care.

Democratic narrative

The Trump administration is taking a punitive approach, criminalizing poverty and ignoring decades of evidence-based housing solutions. Forcing people into institutions won't solve the fundamental issue of housing affordability that drives homelessness, particularly among older adults. This policy threatens to return to a darker era of unjust institutionalization while cutting funding for proven programs.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that fewer than 375 million people will live in extreme poverty by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Venezuela's Maduro Confirms Reports on Chevron's License Renewal

The Facts

  • Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro confirmed in an interview with teleSUR on Thursday that Chevron has been formally granted a license renewal to resume its operations in the country.

  • This comes as reports emerged in the U.S. that the Trump administration had approved a new license allowing the U.S. oil giant to pump oil in Venezuela, in a departure from hardline measures earlier this year.

  • U.S. President Donald Trump had announced in February the reversal of Venezuela's Biden-era Chevron license as part of his pressure campaign against Maduro, with concessions terminating on May 27.


The Spin

Pro-Maduro narrative

This renewed sanctions waiver is a major win for Maduro. Despite pressure from Florida Republicans, the Trump administration was left with no other option than to retreat from its coercive maximum pressure campaign as Venezuela's oil sector has proved its resilience.

Anti-Maduro narrative

This license renewal serves America's strategic interests, as the presence of Chevron in Venezuela protects U.S. energy influence in the Western Hemisphere and prevents Chinese dominance over strategic assets in that country. Furthermore, the new arrangement ensures the Maduro regime won't benefit from oil sales.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite assurances that this renewal won't benefit Maduro, history tells a different story Chevron’s oil operations in Venezuela have sponsored his authoritarian regime by providing it with critical revenue. These funds help sustain state institutions loyal to Maduro, suppress dissent and delay democratic reform. By continuing its business under U.S.-granted licenses, Chevron indirectly enables the regime’s grip on power while ordinary Venezuelans endure economic collapse and repression.

See sources