UN Agency: Belarusian Officials Involved In Plane Bomb Hoax

    Photo: AP [via The Telegraph]

    The Facts

    • On Tues., the UN's aviation agency accused Belarus of committing "unlawful interference" in breach of aviation rules to force a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius, Lithuania to land in Minsk.

    • The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) stated that senior Belarus officials ordered a false bomb threat to be transmitted to the flight crew, risking the safety of the aircraft.

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The report confirms that the Lukashenko regime provoked this entire incident not only to arrest Protasevich but also to show dissidents they can be seized even while in the air. The international community must give a strong response to this de-facto military hijack of a civilian plane, a clear breach of the principles of international aviation.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    While investigations should focus on preventing similar incidents in the future, Western countries have used this situation to blame Belarus based on an unauthenticated record shared by an anonymous air traffic controller. This politically-biased report damages ICAO's credibility as an institution as it contains inaccuracies and questionable methodology.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that Alexander Lukashenko will leave power in Belarus by March 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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