If we de-list Iran’s IRGC, what will the dictators think?
The HillMar 27, 2022
The Facts
On Tues., Biden reportedly made a final decision to keep Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on the US Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list, according to a senior US official.
Tehran's demand to lift the IRGC's FTO status was one of the last major sticking points in the revival of talks regarding the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
As the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, Tehran relies on the IRGC to destabilize the entire Middle East. Although the IRGC and its paramilitary arm, the Quds Force, have been subject to sanctions since 2007 even without their FTO designation, delisting them would send a fatal signal of weakness not only to the regime in Tehran, but also to the autocrats in China and Russia - with unforeseeable consequences for security and peace.
Establishment-critical narrative
The FTO designation has little to no practical value and is mere tokenism. When Washington fears - as it has for years - that Iran is "just weeks" away from being able to build a nuclear weapon, reviving the nuclear agreement should be the highest US national security interest - not targeting the IRGC.
Nerd narrative
There's a 17% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran nuclear deal before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
