Brazil: Thousands Rally Ahead of Elections

    Brazil: Thousands Rally Ahead of Elections
    Photo: Folha de São Paulo

    The Facts

    • On Thurs., thousands of Brazilians marched across several cities in a symbolic "defense of democracy" amid concerns that Pres. Jair Bolsonaro would reject results in upcoming elections if defeated.

    • Demonstrators gathered outside the University of São Paulo's law school where manifestos signed by roughly 1M people, including artists, bankers, big businesses, ordinary people, and politicians, were read.

    The Spin

    Left narrative

    Brazilian democracy is under threat as Pres. Bolsonaro will likely follow the example of his idol Donald Trump by rejecting the electoral results or pushing for an insurrection when confronted with defeat. The Brazilian people must show their strength and make sure he isn't re-elected.

    Right narrative

    The real threat to Brazilian democracy isn't Pres. Bolsonaro, but the left and the institutions it has corrupted - It's no coincidence that the top court has overturned former Pres. Lula's previous convictions of corruption.

    Cynical narrative

    By questioning the integrity of Brazil's electoral system, Bolsonaro - although likely to rally his radical base - will alienate centrist, undecided voters. Continuing to spread conspiracy theories over the integrity of the voting system reveals his fear of losing his Presidency while also potentially cementing his upcoming loss to da Silva.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 28% chance that Bolsonaro will be President of Brazil in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Political split



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