China Announces New Military Drills Near Taiwan

    Image copyright: AP [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • On Mon., Beijing announced a new round of military drills around Taiwan. This comes a day after the scheduled end of its largest-ever war games, carried out for 72 hrs in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.

    • Without identifying the exact location, China's Eastern Theater Command has resumed anti-submarine and sea assault drills in the seas and airspace near Taiwan. Exercises are also being carried out in the South China Sea and the Yellow Sea.


    The Spin

    Pro-China narrative

    China's drills around Taiwan are necessary to both prepare the Chinese military for a possible military engagement initiated by the US and push forward the reunification process. China has every right to assert itself over its own sovereign territory, and the US is playing with fire by flagrantly disregarding its previous historic agreements with China.

    Anti-China narrative

    China is clearly overreacting to Pelosi's visit. US support for Taiwan has been a cornerstone of US policy in Asia for over 70 years, and it's China who is being provocative by launching its largest ever military drills near the island. The PRC's loud saber rattling is menacingly close to Taiwan, which marks a dangerous escalation.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 25% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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