Day 23 Close: Fighting Reaches Mariupol City Centre, Dozens Killed in Attack on Mykolaiv

    Photo: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • The Mayor of the city of Mariupol, Vadym Boichenko, has confirmed Russian reports that fighting has reached its centre.

    • Dozens have been killed in an army barracks in the strategically significant southern city Mykolaiv following a Russian strike.

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 5% chance that Kyiv will fall to Russian forces by April, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split