Day 16 Close: Russia Accused of False Flag Attack in Belarus, using Syrians

Photo: Alexandros Avramidis/Reuters [via Al Jazeera]

The Facts

  • Russian forces appear to be expanding their offensive west, hitting the major cities of Dnipro and Lutsk for the first time on Fri.

  • Fighting has reportedly intensified to the north and northeast of Kyiv, but operations in the capital remain largely stalled. The 40-mile-long convoy has largely dispersed, though it's unclear if the vehicles are being redeployed or securing supply lines.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 14% chance that Kyiv will fall to Russian forces by April, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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