Day 10 Close: Borodyanka "Almost Destroyed", Mariupol Ceasefire Breached

    Image copyright: Getty Images [via the New York Times]

    The Facts

    • No major Russian ground offensives have been conducted in Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the last 24 hrs. Shelling has continued, however, and Borodyanka - a town northwest of Kyiv - is said to be "almost completely destroyed". Meanwhile, a counter-offensive in Kharkiv reportedly damaged Russian front-line units.

    • Russian troops have continued to encircle and bomb Mariupol. Evacuation was paused on Sat after shelling reportedly began along the humanitarian corridor out of the city. Ceasefires to facilitate evacuation were introduced Fri in Mariupol and Volnovakha. Russia has blamed Ukrainian nationalists.


    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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