Day 36 Roundup: Russian Forces Reposition Amid Concerns of Strikes in Donbas Region

    Photo: Heidi Levine [via The Washington Post]

    The Facts

    • Despite recent promises to reduce operations around Kyiv and Chernihiv, NATO's chief on Thurs. warned that Russian troops are repositioning, not withdrawing. Ukrainian and US officials say Russia may be regrouping in Belarus.

    • Meanwhile, British intelligence says Russia is redeploying forces stationed in nearby Georgia to reinforce the invasion of Ukraine.


    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 3% chance that Kyiv will fall to Russian forces by June, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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