Day 132 Roundup: NATO Countries Sign Finland and Sweden's Accession Protocols, Russia Consolidates Gains in Ukraine

    Photo: AP Photos [via AP News]

    The Facts

    • On Tues., NATO's 30 member states signed off on accession protocols for Finland and Sweden to join the US-led alliance after it made the historic decision to invite the two countries to become members at last week's summit in Madrid.

    • The membership bids will now be sent to the capitals of member states for legislative approval. Turkey has indicated it could still block the ratification process, namely if Finland and Sweden fail to meet Ankara's demands on the extradition of terror suspects linked to outlawed Kurdish groups and those associated with the failed coup in 2016.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Finland and Sweden's joining of NATO is a win-win. Both countries would benefit from the alliance's Article 5 on collective defense. Meanwhile, NATO gains additional capabilities in defending Europe from further Russian aggression.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Russia has consistently said it would use military force to prevent NATO expansion on its borders – heeding that advice could've prevented the Ukraine conflict. Finland and Sweden's joining of the alliance not only makes them less secure, but risks an all-out global conflict if Article 5 is triggered.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 97% chance that both Finland and Sweden will formally join NATO before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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