EXPLAINER: What would retreat from Kherson mean for Russia?
Associated PressOct 22, 2022
Day 245 Roundup: New British PM Re-Affirms Support for Ukraine; 'Heaviest of Battles' Ahead in Kherson, Kyiv Says
Photo: Downing Street [via Twitter]
The Facts
Britain's new PM, Rishi Sunak — the country's third of the year — re-affirmed the UK's support for Ukraine in a call with Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday. A Downing Street statement said he used the call to "underline the United Kingdom’s steadfast support," which it added would be "as strong as ever under his premiership."
Sunak also spoke with US Pres. Joe Biden and discussed Russia, China and post-Brexit tensions in Northern Ireland. "The leaders agreed on the importance of working together to support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for its aggression," a White House statement said.
The Spin
Narrative B
With Russian troops bedding in and mobilizing greater forces in the Kherson region, Ukrainian troops may succeed in retaking some territory but it's unlikely they'll recapture the whole region — at least not by the end of the year.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Dec 23, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.