Experts have made it clear – the situation at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant presents the risk of another Chernobyl. Nuclear disaster has, miraculously, been avoided so far, but continuing risks to the safety and effectiveness of staff to control the reactors could have catastrophic consequences.
Although Zaporizhzhia's cooling systems will be relatively vulnerable due to their contact with the outside world, the worst-case scenario would only cause serious damage at a local level. Both Russia and Ukraine are overstating the risk of nuclear catastrophe to galvanize domestic support for the invasion and play upon Western fears to incentivize providing military and public support respectively.
There's a 40% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.