These mobilization measures are a response to Western aggression that will help protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of regions within the Russian Federation. Only citizens with prior military experience will be called up and will undergo further military training before being dispatched to support military units in this special operation. The government will also provide defense units with all the supplies and financial resources necessary for success.
This mobilization is the desperate move of a Russian regime under military and domestic threat. Russia's military has already sustained significant loses, and the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive has revealed the vulnerability of Russia's overstretched invasion forces. Even some on the political right in Russia are beginning to criticize the sustainability of the invasion, while evidence has emerged that the Kremlin is desperately coercing groups, including prisoners, to volunteer for service.
There is a 24% chance that a coup or regime change will take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.