Putin signs decree on partial mobilization in Russia
TASSSep 21, 2022
The Facts
On Wednesday, in a rare videotaped address to the nation, Russian Pres. Putin announced the partial mobilization of Russia's military. He described the decision as "necessary and urgent," claiming that the West had "crossed all lines" by sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine.
Roughly 300K reservists will reportedly be called up. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said that only people with relevant combat and service experience will be mobilized and that only around 1% of the 25M who meet these criteria will be utilized under the new campaign.
The Spin
Pro-Russia narrative
These mobilization measures are a response to Western aggression that will help protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of regions within the Russian Federation. Only citizens with prior military experience will be called up and will undergo further military training before being dispatched to support military units in this special operation. The government will also provide defense units with all the supplies and financial resources necessary for success.
Anti-Russia narrative
This mobilization is the desperate move of a Russian regime under military and domestic threat. Russia's military has already sustained significant loses, and the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive has revealed the vulnerability of Russia's overstretched invasion forces. Even some on the political right in Russia are beginning to criticize the sustainability of the invasion, while evidence has emerged that the Kremlin is desperately coercing groups, including prisoners, to volunteer for service.
Nerd narrative
There is a 24% chance that a coup or regime change will take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
