Day 93 Roundup: Russia Advances in the East, Report Accuses Moscow of Intent to Commit Genocide

    Photo: AP Photos [via AP News]

    The Facts

    • Russian forces have reportedly continued to make gains in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, advancing south of Lyman and west of Popasna, as they continue in their efforts to encircle Severodonetsk – the last major city in the Donbas still under Ukrainian control.

    • Severodonetsk mayor Oleksandr Stryuk alleged that at least 1.5k people have been killed in the city since the beginning of the war and that 12-13k civilians remain, stating that only 12 people were able to be evacuated on Thursday.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    As the war shifts to the strategically important Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, the US and its allies need to continue to do everything in their power to arm Ukraine with all the weapons they need. Doing so is the only way to push Putin's forces back as was done in Kyiv.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    As stated by Putin, the whole purpose of the war was never to invade Kyiv, but to liberate the ethnically Russian people of Donetsk and Luhansk, who have been subjected to systematic killing by Ukrainian forces for not recognizing the 2014 coup in Kyiv. This tragedy would have been avoided if NATO had kept its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification.

    Nerd narrative

    There is an 10% chance that Russia will formally announce that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine by August 1, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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