Day 109: Russia Extends Planning to Oct., Ukraine Suffers Ammo Shortage

    Photo: EPA-EFE/Shutterstock [via The Washington Post]

    The Facts

    • On Sun., the Azot chemical plant in Ukraine was set on fire by Russian shelling following an oil leak, according to Gov. of Luhansk Serhiy Haidai. The news came as fighting reportedly continues to rage in Severodonetsk where Russian forces have taken control of most of the city.

    • According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces are altering their plans every month with the intent of fighting a longer war. Ultimate military goals are likely to depend on the outcome of conflict in the Donbas, as the Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate confirmed information that Russian war planning has extended into Oct. 2022.

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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