Day 248: Russia Says Mobilization Drive Complete; Drone Attack in Crimea

    Day 248: Russia Says Mobilization Drive Complete; Drone Attack in Crimea
    Updated Oct 29, 2022
    Image credit: POOL/TASS [via TASS]


    • In a televised meeting on Friday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told Pres. Vladimir Putin that the country's "partial mobilization" drive of 300k reservists — announced on Sep. 21 following a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv — has been completed.[1]
    • Shoigu told Putin: "The deployment of citizens called up for mobilization was completed today. The conscription of citizens has stopped." He added that the 300K figure was reached, with 218K currently receiving training and 82K already fighting in Ukraine.[2]
    • Meanwhile, with the heaviest fighting continuing in Donetsk and Kherson, Ukraine reportedly launched a drone attack on Crimea in the early hours of Saturday. Crimean Gov. Mikhail Razvozhaev said ships from Russia's Black Sea fleet repelled the attack over the waters of Sevastopol and that there was no damage to the city or casualties.[3]
    • Citing the drone incident, Russia later suspended its participation in a UN-brokered grain export deal. This came just 24 hours after the UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed his full support for the agreement and called for its renewal before it expires next month. The exports of grain and other food products under the Black Sea Grain Initiative have reportedly surpassed 9M tonnes so far.[4]
    • In the meantime, Russian attacks continued to be reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia. Three civilians were injured in Kharkiv, while one was injured in Dnipropetrovsk.[5]
    • In Donetsk, Ukrainian officials reported that three civilians were killed and eight others were injured in Russian attacks over the past day. Meanwhile, pro-Russia separatists from the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said three civilians were killed, and five others were injured in Ukrainian shelling.[6]


    Anti-Russia narrative

    Russia's hastily organized mobilization has triggered thousands to flee the country, while those unfortunate enough to be selected are sent to the frontlines as cannon fodder with insufficient training and equipment.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    This is Russia's first mobilization of troops since World War II. Some logistical problems were inevitable, but the relevant conclusions have been drawn, and the issues have been rectified.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that at least 7.07% of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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