Day 44: Russia Suspended from UNHRC, Ukraine Braces for Massive Offensive in the East

    Photo: Reuters [via CNN]

    The Facts

    • The UN General Assembly voted on Thurs. to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. Kyiv applauded the suspension, but Moscow said that the move was illegal and a power play by the US.

    • On Fri., The UK's MoD stated that Russian forces have fully withdrawn from northern Ukraine. Kyiv is now preparing for a massive offensive in the Donbass region, as Russian troops appear to be redeploying to the east.

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    According to the Metaculus prediction community, if a bilateral cease-fire agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine this year, it won't take effect until the end of June.

    Establishment split