Day 144: Russian Missiles Strike Mykolaiv, Battles Rage in Eastern Ukraine

    Photo: AFP/Getty Images [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • Russian missiles struck an industrial and infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv, a shipbuilding center in southern Ukraine, on Sun. The number of casualties is still unknown.

    • Mykolaiv has faced regular Russian missile strikes in recent weeks because of its strategic proximity to the Black Sea coast. If Russia captures the city it would allow Moscow to secure a land bridge to Transnistria, which hosts a Russian military base, and be a blow to the Ukrainian economy.

    The Spin

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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