Day 15 Close: Operations Around Kyiv Remain Stalled, Talks Fail Again

Photo: AP Photo [via CNBC]

The Facts

  • Russian operations around Kyiv have remained largely stalled in the last 24 hrs. Ukrainian forces reportedly damaged an armored unit to the east in Brovary on Thurs, possibly disrupting efforts to encircle the capital.

  • The UK's MoD on Thurs morning also reported a "notable decrease in overall Russian air activity" in recent days, which they attributed to the "unexpected effectiveness and endurance" of Kyiv's air defences.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

Pro-Russia narrative

NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that Kyiv will fall to Russian forces by April, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO