Day 155 Roundup: UK Warns of Higher Nuclear War Risk; Ukraine Says Operation to Re-Take Kherson 'Already Begun'

    Photo: Ukraine State Emergency Service [via Reuters]

    The Facts

    • Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the UK's National Security Adviser, said the West faces an escalated risk of nuclear war with Russia and China because of a "breakdown of communication." Speaking at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington on Wed., he said there was now a greater risk of "rapid escalation to strategic conflict."

    • It comes as Ukraine's presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said the operation to re-take the southern city of Kherson "has already begun" following rocket strikes on the Antonivskiy bridge, a key Russian supply route, on Wednesday. He added that Russia was already conducting a "massive redeployment" of forces to the regions of Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after an election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 32% chance that Russian or Belarusian troops will cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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