Day 188 Roundup: Ukraine Claims Breakthrough in Kherson; IAEA Inspectors in Kyiv

Photo: AP Photos [via AP News]

The Facts

  • Following Mon.'s announcement that Ukraine's long-awaited southern counteroffensive has begun, its armed forces claimed to have broken through several areas along the front line of Russian defences in the Kherson region. This was supported by a video appearing to show a Russian soldier in the midst of artillery fire complaining about a Ukrainian breakthrough. However, the advance has yet to be independently confirmed.

  • In the wake of the announcement, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address on Monday: "If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee." He added: "The occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed."

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

It's unclear how far Ukrainian forces might have pushed, but all signs indicate that the long-awaited southern counteroffensive has successfully started, particularly in the region of Kherson. Any offensive action is good news for Kyiv and, with luck, this is part of a wider counteroffensive that will shift the momentum of the war in Kyiv's favor.

Pro-Russia narrative

Reports of a successful Kherson counteroffensive are false. Moscow's forces were activated in Tavrichesky, but all Ukrainian attackers who failed to surrender were eliminated and the area is now back under Russian control. Kherson has been severed from Kyiv and life is gradually returning to normal under a Russian economic and legal framework.

Nerd narrative

There is a 11% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment split



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