Day 101: Ukraine Reclaims Ground In Severodonetsk As Russia Pushes For Complete Control of Luhansk

    Photo: AP [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • Ukrainian officials say they've recaptured parts of the northeastern city Severodonetsk as of Sat., just days after Russian forces had taken over most of the city. Severodonetsk is one of the last remaining major cities in the Luhansk region of the Donbas under Ukrainian control.

    • Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Gaidai said half of Severodonetsk is now under Ukrainian control - meaning they've recaptured roughly 20% of the area previously controlled by Russia - and that Russian forces are "suffering huge losses." The claims haven't been independently confirmed.

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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