Day 83: Ukrainian Fighters Surrender in Besieged Mariupol Plant; Russia Bombs Lviv

    Photo: Reuters [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • After weeks of fighting and bombardment, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers holed up in the Azovstal steelworks plant in Mariupol reportedly surrendered on Tuesday. This comes as wounded fighters were evacuated late Mon. night through humanitarian corridors agreed with Russia.

    • Ukraine's deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said 53 heavily wounded fighters were taken to a hospital in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk in Donetsk. Over 200 others were evacuated to a facility in Olenivka, also in Donetsk. Russia says 265 fighters, including 51 wounded, have surrendered.

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to rewrite history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 20% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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