Day 266 Roundup: US Sources Suggest Missile that Landed in Poland was Ukrainian

    Photo: Reuters [via Reuters]

    The Facts

    • After a missile crossed Ukraine's border into Poland late on Tuesday killing two civilians, three US officials told the Associated Press that preliminary investigations suggested the projectile was an air-defense missile launched by Ukrainian forces attempting to stave off a salvo of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

    • The incident prompted widespread speculation that the missile was fired by Russia, with some calling for NATO's article 4 or article 5 to be evoked. Leaders from the G7 countries were also called into an emergency meeting while the G20 summit was underway in Indonesia.

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    While the incident in Poland is unlikely to trigger NATO's article 4 or article 5, it underscores the very real risk of a full-blown Russia-NATO war in the event of an accident or a miscalculation.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    Premature statements from Ukrainian and Western officials that Russia was to blame for the incident in Poland are a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the war. All Russian missiles had hit their targets precisely.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 5% chance that a NATO country will evoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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