Poland explosion unlikely to spark escalation – but risks of Nato-Russia clash are real
GuardianNov 16, 2022
After a missile crossed Ukraine's border into Poland late on Tuesday killing two civilians, three US officials told the Associated Press that preliminary investigations suggested the projectile was an air-defense missile launched by Ukrainian forces attempting to stave off a salvo of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
The incident prompted widespread speculation that the missile was fired by Russia, with some calling for NATO's article 4 or article 5 to be evoked. Leaders from the G7 countries were also called into an emergency meeting while the G20 summit was underway in Indonesia.
While the incident in Poland is unlikely to trigger NATO's article 4 or article 5, it underscores the very real risk of a full-blown Russia-NATO war in the event of an accident or a miscalculation.
Premature statements from Ukrainian and Western officials that Russia was to blame for the incident in Poland are a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the war. All Russian missiles had hit their targets precisely.
There's a 5% chance that a NATO country will evoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.