The Facts
- The Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) released a bulletin on Tues. saying that the Supreme Court's upcoming decision on abortion, an increase of migrants at the US-Mexico border, and the midterm elections are potential triggers for extremist violence over the next six months.
- The bulletin listed potential targets to include "public gatherings, faith-based institutions, schools, racial and religious minorities, government facilities and personnel, US critical infrastructure, the media, and perceived ideological opponents."
- It also said that "in the coming months, we expect the threat environment to become more dynamic as several high-profile events could be exploited to justify acts of violence against a range of possible targets."
Sources Split
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The Spin
Right narrative
The biggest threat of violence that the US faces will be at the hands of pro-abortion leftists. Abortion groups nationwide have called for a large-scale backlash in anticipation of the potential overturning of Roe v. Wade, including protesting at the homes of Supreme Court Justices and even Catholic masses.
Left narrative
It is a demonstrable fact that since the current upsurge in political violence began in 2015, the brutality has been overwhelmingly perpetrated by white supremacists and right-wing extremists. The recent shooting in Buffalo is a prime example of how racist far-right rhetoric has led to terrible violence across the country.
Narrative C
Regardless of the ideology of any extremist actors, the fact remains that the US has more guns than citizens: some 400M firearms in 2018 in a nation of 330M people, and semi-automatic handguns have been outselling hunting rifles for over a decade. Until we address this root problem, we would be mad to expect anything other than more carnage - whether the perpetrators sympathize with the left, right, or neither.
Metaculus Prediction
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