Climate change is already worsening the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Central America. Research links back-to-back hurricanes in 2020 to a changing climate, and 1.5M people were displaced as a result. El Salvador is one of 19 countries most at risk for worsening humanitarian conditions by year's end, and climate change-catalyzed disasters are playing a central role.
While climate change is a factor, it must be remembered that nearly half of the population in Central America lives in poverty. When a hurricane strikes, there is very little funding available for disaster response and recovery. Recent US policies that restrict immigration and slash agricultural aid have made the issues worse. The underlying material conditions for Central America's most vulnerable people must be remembered as a root cause of the humanitarian crisis.
There's an 85% chance there will be at least 2˚C degrees of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.