Election of Bill Clinton Led UK to Brace For 'Turbulence' Over NI, Say Papers

    Photo: belfastlive

    The Facts

    • Documents declassified this week show that the election of Bill Clinton as US president in 1992 prompted the UK government to brace for "turbulence" due to his views on Northern Ireland (NI).

    • In a letter written to an Irish-American group just weeks before the election, Clinton called for "more effective safeguards" against the use of lethal force in the region. The letter was circulated in the NI Office before it was suggested to the UK's ambassador to the US that Clinton's views needed to be challenged, rather than being left to "calcify."


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Clinton's foreign policy approach to Northern Ireland was a resounding success. Even his harshest critics were amazed at the love the former president received during his trip to the region, and the peace agreement was largely a triumph for the Clinton Administration. The US continues to be a positive influence in the nation.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    The US has its own economic interests, and although it holds a commitment to peace in Ireland, America will ultimately seek to advance its own goals. There is no obvious reason for the US to take sides in the current Brexit-fueled dilemmas surrounding the region, and no one should count on the country to support Ireland's interests, despite America's diplomatic success there in the 1990s.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 41% chance that Northern Ireland will hold a reunification referendum before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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