Ethiopia: Federal Government, Tigrayan Forces Agree To Truce

    Photo: Reuters

    The Facts

    • On Wednesday, African Union special envoy and former Nigerian Pres. Olusegun Obasanjo announced that Ethiopia's warring sides have formally agreed to a permanent cessation of hostilities in the first briefing on the peace talks in Pretoria, South Africa.

    • This comes just more than a week after formal peace talks began, with Obasanjo adding that Ethiopia's government and Tigrayan authorities have also agreed on "orderly, smooth, and coordinated disarmament" along with restoring law and order, services, and access to humanitarian supplies.

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    As the federal government is on the verge of winning this war, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed has actively sought this ceasefire to ensure peace, development, and prosperity. This is the only way to prevent further attempts to violate the country's sovereignty and deter forces that may intend to cause conflicts among Ethiopians.

    Narrative B

    By signing this ceasefire, the federal government has acknowledged that it couldn't win the war despite making recent advances in Tigray. Addis Ababa knew that occupying these areas would require the deployment of tens of thousands of soldiers to fight local guerrilla, which would increase resistance in the medium and long term.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 60% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Articles on this story

    Sign up to our daily newsletter