Ethiopia: Federal Government, Tigrayan Forces Agree To Truce

    Ethiopia: Federal Government, Tigrayan Forces Agree To Truce
    Last updated Nov 02, 2022
    Image credit: Reuters


    • On Wednesday, African Union special envoy and former Nigerian Pres. Olusegun Obasanjo announced that Ethiopia's warring sides have formally agreed to a permanent cessation of hostilities in the first briefing on the peace talks in Pretoria, South Africa.[1]
    • This comes just more than a week after formal peace talks began, with Obasanjo adding that Ethiopia's government and Tigrayan authorities have also agreed on "orderly, smooth, and coordinated disarmament" along with restoring law and order, services, and access to humanitarian supplies.[2]
    • While an agreement hadn't been expected so soon, this isn't the end of the peace process as the implementation of the peace agreement is crucial for its success. There was no mention of whether Eritrea and forces from other Ethiopian regions would abide by the truce.[3]
    • This will be the second time that the two sides cease hostilities during the two-year-long conflict after a truce — which allowed food aid to enter Tigray — agreed in March fell apart in August.[4]
    • The civil war — which has caused widespread destruction, a deepening humanitarian crisis, and extensive human rights violations — had intensified recently as federal soldiers, aided by Eritrean troops, captured swaths of Tigray.[5]
    • The African Union has reportedly called this ceasefire a new "dawn," while UN Secretary General António Guterres welcomed this "first step" to comfort "millions of Ethiopian civilians that have really suffered during this conflict."[6]


    Narrative A

    As the federal government is on the verge of winning this war, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed has actively sought this ceasefire to ensure peace, development, and prosperity. This is the only way to prevent further attempts to violate the country's sovereignty and deter forces that may intend to cause conflicts among Ethiopians.

    Narrative B

    By signing this ceasefire, the federal government has acknowledged that it couldn't win the war despite making recent advances in Tigray. Addis Ababa knew that occupying these areas would require the deployment of tens of thousands of soldiers to fight local guerrilla, which would increase resistance in the medium and long term.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 60% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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