As the federal government is on the verge of winning this war, Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed has actively sought this ceasefire to ensure peace, development, and prosperity. This is the only way to prevent further attempts to violate the country's sovereignty and deter forces that may intend to cause conflicts among Ethiopians.
By signing this ceasefire, the federal government has acknowledged that it couldn't win the war despite making recent advances in Tigray. Addis Ababa knew that occupying these areas would require the deployment of tens of thousands of soldiers to fight local guerrilla, which would increase resistance in the medium and long term.
There's a 60% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.