European Ministers Push Hungary to Support Oil Embargo on Russia

    Photo: AFP/Getty Images [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • EU leaders are struggling to convince Hungary to support an oil embargo on Russia, with Lithuania's Foreign Minister claiming Hungarian officials are holding the EU hostage with their refusal to support the sanction.

    • The ban on crude was proposed almost two weeks ago, but Hungary, which receives 65% of its oil from Russia, has said the embargo would cost the nation close to $19B.

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    Orban's Kremlin ties are straining the relationship between Hungary and the rest of the EU's western alliance. They're holding the bloc's ability to deliver effective punitive sanctions on the Russian economy hostage, even though the EU's foreign policy chief has questioned the inconsistencies in Hungary's claims about the cost of the embargo.

    Narrative B

    Hungary has been clear from the start that energy sanctions are a red line, as they would decimate the economy. An embargo on Russian oil would demand the complete modernization of the nation's energy system and bring an era of economic recession that would only prompt migration and spiralling economic downturns for the rest of Europe. The Hungarian people must not be made to pay the price of the war.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that Russia's 2022 oil production will drop by less than 12% from 2021, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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