Somalia's former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Returns to Power

    Photo: AFP [via France 24]

    The Facts

    • On Sun., Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as Somalia's president, defeating incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed in a tightly security controlled parliamentary election. He was immediately sworn in following the win.

    • Mohamud, who previously served as president from 2012 to 2017, was elected by the country's 328 legislators in a third round of voting. The election was delayed for more than a year due to political disputes and a deteriorating security situation.

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's return to the presidency is a new glimmer of hope for Somalia. If the US government adopts a more holistic strategy in fighting terror and provides crucial assistance in combating the devastating drought, there is a reason for modest optimism.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Regardless of who governs the country, the devastating security situation in Somalia is unlikely to change decisively as long as the West, and above all the US, continue intervening in and destabilizing the Horn of Africa. The military intervention of NATO countries, as well as the acts of Somalia's own military in allegedly fighting Islamic militants, primarily serves geopolitical interests.

    Nerd narrative

    There is a 50% chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by July, 2059, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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