McCarthy has telegraphed that his potential speakership will be politically volatile. Although he's favored to be the next Speaker of the House, with only a weak Republican majority, this is not a done deal yet. McCarthy is struggling for support and will have to bend to the will of outlandish hard-right conservatives if he's to land the job.
With a microscopic majority in the House, McCarthy's potential first job as Speaker must be to temper expectations. The GOP's most important achievement — removing Nancy Pelosi from the role — has already been achieved. With realism, subtlety, and creativity, House Republicans can now attempt to pass legislation to show a solution-oriented agenda.
There is a 76% chance that the Republicans will win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.