Japan: Kishida Cabinet Loses 3rd Minister in Under a Month

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    The Spin

    Narrative A

    While the Kishida admin. has seen its political capital shrinking and has been heavily criticized for failing to quickly respond to personnel crises involving ministers, LDP intraparty disputes also play a significant role in this indecisiveness. As no faction has a strong grip on power and Kishida leads the smallest one, other leaders must be consulted before any decision is taken. His hands are tied.

    Narrative B

    Kishida is at a crossroads now, and internal opposition within the LDP could emerge if his low approval ratings are considered a threat to the party in local assembly elections next year. A Cabinet reshuffle — which some speculate is likely — would only escalate the conflicts without guaranteeing a boost in his popularity, but dissolving the lower house — a move that could restore his authority — may be too risky.

    Metaculus Prediction


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