Kazakh Leader Calls for Snap Presidential Election

    Photo: euractiv

    The Facts

    • Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has called for an early presidential election on Nov. 20, according to a decree published by his office.

    • Per the country's Central Election Commission, the nomination of presidential candidates begins on Sept. 23 and concludes on Oct. 11.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    This snap election has the potential to renew credibility and public trust in key Kazakh institutions. With the promise of the election being fair, open, and highly participatory, there is a chance that it will allow a fresh start for the Central Asian nation and its political system.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Any changes from the previous system in Kazakhstan are cosmetic, with the state still likely to be run by relatives and cronies of the ruling elite, including Tokayev. Despite structural reforms, it's unlikely that the power structure of Astana will change significantly.

    Nerd narrative

    There is an 11% chance that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will exit the presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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