Leavitt Wins New Hampshire GOP Primary

Photo: Reuters [via The New York Times]

The Facts

  • Karoline Leavitt, a 25-year-old former communications staffer under former Pres. Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination in the race for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District on Tuesday, defeating Matt Mowers, the party's failed 2020 nominee, 33% to 26%.

  • Leavitt began working for the Trump admin. in 2019 under Press Sec. Kayleigh McEnany and, after Trump's 2020 loss, began working for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY). If elected, she'd be the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This was a battle to carry the mantle for Trump, and while Leavitt embraced it, Mowers wouldn’t go far enough. Leavitt’s "America First" campaign resonated with the voters, leading to victory for her and thus for Trump.

Democratic narrative

This is a GOP setback. Despite outspending them drastically and calling them out for their crazy ideas, mainstream Republicans couldn't stop candidates from the far right from winning in New Hampshire's races. Republican voters have played into the Democrats’ hands by giving them opponents on the ballot who can be defeated.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that the Republican party will control both the House and the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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