Morgan Stanley: US May Avoid Recession, But Not Europe

    Photo: Reuters [via Malay Mail]

    The Facts

    • In a report released Sunday, Morgan Stanley predicted that there will be a split in GDP growth between the world's 10 developed countries (G10), with the UK and the Eurozone facing a recession in 2023 and the US narrowly avoiding one.

    • The average G10 growth next year is expected to be 0.3%, with the US seeing a 0.5% increase. China will reportedly outpace the average emerging markets prediction — with 3.7% growth in 2023 — with a GDP increase of 5%.


    The Spin

    Establishment-critical narrative

    At this point, the debate over whether the US is officially in a recession doesn't matter. Prices for everyday goods are going up, unemployment is expected to rise above 4% — not including people who've stopped looking for a job — and loan interest rates are still devastatingly high. Average workers are still feeling crushed by this economy and no financial analyst's report can make them feel better. This administration must do more to defeat inflation.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The Fed has been tackling inflation, and it has been working. Morgan Stanley isn’t the first to say there’s a lesser chance of a US recession than there was earlier this year, as Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of a recession to 35%. Economic growth has already occurred and gross domestic product growth looks headed for about 1%.


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