Twitter’s Lawsuit Against Elon Musk Looks Like a Loser
Wall Street JournalJul 13, 2022
The Facts
On Tues., Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that he had sold $6.9B worth of shares in the electric vehicle maker, claiming the move was to prevent an emergency sale of shares in case he's forced to buy Twitter.
Though Tesla stocks have rebounded 28% since May, their depreciation during the year has reduced Musk's wealth by around $20B. On Wed. morning, Tesla shares rose 3% after declining over 2% on Tuesday.
The Spin
Narrative A
The Twitter legal team's actions are inexplicable. After failing to include damages to shareholders in the original $44B deal, they're now seeking to force Musk to complete the purchase even though this could further harm the company. Their lawsuit is likely to fail and the court may impose a fee lower than the $1B breakup fee.
Narrative B
Musk's lawyers may ultimately be able to avoid his having to close on the $44B deal, but there's no way Twitter will lose this lawsuit. These are business-savvy parties, and neither would have agreed to a specific performance provision without meaning it. The same applies to the $1B breakup fee, which admittedly doesn't reflect the full damages to the shareholders.
Nerd narrative
There's a 20% chance that Elon Musk will become CEO of Twitter before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
