[Column] Nuclear N. Korea: Beyond deterrence and recognition
HANKYOREHSep 26, 2022
The Facts
North Korea reportedly fired a short-range ballistic missile toward its eastern territorial waters on Sunday ahead of military drills by South Korean and US forces and a visit by US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.
According to the South Korean military, which called the test a "serious provocation," the missile was launched from the Taechon area in North Korea's North Pyongan province. It flew about 600 km (370 miles) at a speed of about Mach 5, reaching an altitude of about 60 km (37 miles).
The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
The policy of military "deterrence" against Pyongyang leads only leads to frustrating countermeasures. It's not helpful to make the complete denuclearization of North Korea a precondition for improving bilateral relations. Only when peaceful coexistence between North and South Korea is nurtured will Pyongyang reconsider its nuclear stance. This is basic common sense.
Pro-establishment narrative
Now is the time for Washington, Seoul, and the international community to make it clear to Pyongyang that serious consequences will follow if North Korea's provocations continue. The global community should retain the right to launch preemptive strikes should a North Korean attack be imminent.
Nerd narrative
There's a 70% chance that North Korea will conduct more than 20 missile test events in 2022 and 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
