Crisistan: Pakistan’s three-way political poker game
GZERO MediaOct 25, 2022
Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan on Tuesday announced a protest march spanning an estimated 236 miles (380 km) from Lahore to Islamabad to call on his government to hold early elections.
The so-called "long march," to be launched on Friday, comes as Pakistan's Election Commission last week barred Khan from holding public office for five years. This was after an investigation ruled he had unlawfully sold gifts from foreign leaders and dignitaries while in office between 2018 to 2022.
Amid a crisis with a cash-strapped government reeling after catastrophic flooding, Khan is playing poker with this "long march" with Sharif and the country's military establishment. It's unknown if Khan can regain power, but his popularity continues to surge.
The corruption charges brought against Khan are just a minor preliminary move from Pakistan's military-controlled bureaucracy. If these don't stick, more serious allegations will be brought to keep the former PM out of office, posing serious roadblocks for him.
There's a 43% chance that Pakistan will default on its debts in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.