The Facts
The world has a 50-50 chance of exceeding an average global temperature of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2026, according to a new UN report released Tuesday.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments agreed to try to limit warming to 1.5°C above baseline, with an absolute cap of 2°C. Exceeding 1.5°C could result in potentially irreversible climate tipping points, such as the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet, the IPCC has warned.
The Spin
Narrative A
We have a climate emergency, and this report is yet another wake-up call. We must move away from fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy immediately if we are to be able to stay below 1.5°C. Failure to do so will mean confronting tipping points harmful for the entire Earth much faster than expected.
Narrative B
While alarming, accurate long-term predictions are difficult to make, and the numbers here are slightly higher than previous predictions by NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Besides, 1.5°C of warming is only a 20-30 year average, and is by no means irreversible. There's still plenty of time to take action.
Narrative C
Climate and environmental disasters have been predicted by modern-day doomsayers for decades. None of the apocalyptic predictions have come true so far; why would this time be any different?