Scottish Leader Calls For Independence Vote

    Photo: AFP/Getty Images [via The Guardian]

    The Facts

    • On Tues., the leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), Nicola Sturgeon, announced plans for a second referendum on an independent Scotland.

    • The vote will reportedly echo the wording of the 2014 referendum question, "Should Scotland be an independent country?," and according to the nation's First Minister, will take place on Oct. 19, 2023.

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The SNP are sowing discord and division for their own political gain. It would be absurd to have an independence referendum every time the SNP won an election - unionists must stand firm against the insubstantial case for another expensive and unnecessary vote.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Sturgeon has been forced to gamble by a PM who refuses to back her or recognize the strength of support for Scottish nationalism. Either way, this is a win-win for the SNP who will either receive another, post-Brexit independence vote, or boost their political cause by demonstrating that Westminster doesn't support Scottish sovereignty.

    Narrative C

    These arguments aren't about referendums, but political engagement. The Scottish have greater faith and belief in their sovereignty than UK ministers for Westminster, which is likely to play in Sturgeon's favor. However, popular support alone will not answer key questions about the financial viability or constitutional authority when it comes to an independent Scotland.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 5% chance that Scotland will cease to be a part of the United Kingdom by Jan. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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